Can Overconfidence be Debiased by Low-Probability/High-Consequence Events?
Li, Shu1,2; Li, Jin-Zhen1,2; Chen, Yi-Wen1,2; Bai, Xin-Wen1,2; Ren, Xiao-Peng1,2; Zheng, Rui1,2; Rao, Li-Lin1,2; Wang, Zuo-Jun1,2; Liu, Huan1,2; Shu Li
2010-04-01
发表期刊RISK ANALYSIS
通讯作者邮箱lishu@psych.ac.cn
ISSN0272-4332
文章类型Article
卷号30期号:4页码:699-707
产权排序1
摘要During the first half of 2008, China suffered three natural disasters: a heavy snow storm, an outbreak of hand-foot-mouth disease, and a severe earthquake. The aim of the present study is to explore how low-probability/high-consequence events influence overconfidence. In Study 1, opportunity samples were obtained by recruiting residents in three different types of disaster-hit areas to answer a peer-comparison probability judgment questionnaire about 1 month after the corresponding disaster occurred. The performance of 539 participants in disaster-hit areas was compared with that of 142 residents in a nondisaster area. The findings indicate that residents in disaster-hit areas were less overconfident than those in the nondisaster area on both positive and negative events. In Study 2, we surveyed a total of 336 quake-victims 4 and 11 months after the earthquake to examine whether the impact of disasters on overconfidence would decay with time. The resulting data indicate that the disaster victims became more overconfident as time elapsed. The overall findings suggest that low-probability/high-consequence events could make people less overconfident and more rational and seem to serve as a function of debiasing.
关键词Disaster optimistic bias overconfidence rationality time-decay
学科领域环境心理学
URL查看原文
收录类别SCI ; SSCI
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000276618700014
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://ir.psych.ac.cn/handle/311026/10064
专题中国科学院心理研究所回溯数据库(1956-2010)
通讯作者Shu Li
作者单位1.Institute of Psychol, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Psychol, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Li, Shu,Li, Jin-Zhen,Chen, Yi-Wen,et al. Can Overconfidence be Debiased by Low-Probability/High-Consequence Events?[J]. RISK ANALYSIS,2010,30(4):699-707.
APA Li, Shu.,Li, Jin-Zhen.,Chen, Yi-Wen.,Bai, Xin-Wen.,Ren, Xiao-Peng.,...&Shu Li.(2010).Can Overconfidence be Debiased by Low-Probability/High-Consequence Events?.RISK ANALYSIS,30(4),699-707.
MLA Li, Shu,et al."Can Overconfidence be Debiased by Low-Probability/High-Consequence Events?".RISK ANALYSIS 30.4(2010):699-707.
条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小 文献类型 版本类型 开放类型 使用许可
Can_Overconfidence_b(281KB) 限制开放CC BY-NC-SA浏览 请求全文
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
查看访问统计
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Li, Shu]的文章
[Li, Jin-Zhen]的文章
[Chen, Yi-Wen]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Li, Shu]的文章
[Li, Jin-Zhen]的文章
[Chen, Yi-Wen]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Li, Shu]的文章
[Li, Jin-Zhen]的文章
[Chen, Yi-Wen]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享
文件名: Can_Overconfidence_be_Debiased_by_Low-ProbabilityHigh-Consequence_Events1[1].pdf
格式: Adobe PDF
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。