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题名:
Formulating an emergency plan based on expectation-maximization is one thing, but applying it to a single case is another
作者: Sun, Hong-Yue1,2; Rao, LiLin(饶俪琳)1,2; Zhou, Kun3; Li, Shu(李纾)1
文章类型: Article
关键词: emergency plan ; expectation-maximization ; single-application ; multiple-application ; eye movement patterns
刊名: JOURNAL OF RISK RESEARCH
ISSN号: 1366-9877
出版日期: 2014
卷号: 17, 期号:7, 页码:785-814
收录类别: SSCI
英文摘要: This research extends the exploration of single-play/multiple-play distinctions from monetary gambling paradigm to emergency management situation. We conducted three studies (two survey studies and one eye tracking study) to test whether an emergency plan we formulated in advance based on expectation-maximization would be likely to be applied in a single case. In the first two survey studies we found that the plan with the higher EV was more likely to be preferred when the plan was applied 100 times or to 100 areas than when the plan was applied only once or to only one area. We also found significant framing and reflection effects, both of which violated the invariance principle in the single-application condition, but not in the multiple-application condition. Furthermore, in the eye tracking study, we found distinctly different eye movement patterns in the single-application condition and the multiple-application condition. The eye movement patterns in the multiple-application condition are more consistent with the predictions deduced from expectation computation. The overall results suggest that a gap exists between the formulation and the implementation of an emergency plan. Formulating an emergency plan based on expectation-maximization is doable, but applying it to a single case may be more challenging.
语种: 英语
WOS记录号: WOS:000339071000001
Citation statistics:
内容类型: 期刊论文
URI标识: http://ir.psych.ac.cn/handle/311026/13469
Appears in Collections:中国科学院行为科学重点实验室_期刊论文

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作者单位: 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Psychol, Key Lab Behav Sci, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
3.Civil Aviat Univ China, Coll Safety Sci & Engn, Tianjin, Peoples R China

Recommended Citation:
Sun, Hong-Yue,Rao, Li-Lin,Zhou, Kun,et al. Formulating an emergency plan based on expectation-maximization is one thing, but applying it to a single case is another[J]. JOURNAL OF RISK RESEARCH,2014,17(7):785-814.
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