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Exploring the knowledge behind predictions in everyday cognition: an iterated learning study
Stephens, Rachel G.1; Dunn, John C.1; Rao, Li-Lin2; Li, Shu2
2015-10-01
Source PublicationMEMORY & COGNITION
ISSN0090-502X
SubtypeArticle
Volume43Issue:7Pages:1007-1020
AbstractMaking accurate predictions about events is an important but difficult task. Recent work suggests that people are adept at this task, making predictions that reflect surprisingly accurate knowledge of the distributions of real quantities. Across three experiments, we used an iterated learning procedure to explore the basis of this knowledge: to what extent is domain experience critical to accurate predictions and how accurate are people when faced with unfamiliar domains? In Experiment 1, two groups of participants, one resident in Australia, the other in China, predicted the values of quantities familiar to both (movie run-times), unfamiliar to both (the lengths of Pharaoh reigns), and familiar to one but unfamiliar to the other (cake baking durations and the lengths of Beijing bus routes). While predictions from both groups were reasonably accurate overall, predictions were inaccurate in the selectively unfamiliar domains and, surprisingly, predictions by the China-resident group were also inaccurate for a highly familiar domain: local bus route lengths. Focusing on bus routes, two follow-up experiments with Australia-resident groups clarified the knowledge and strategies that people draw upon, plus important determinants of accurate predictions. For unfamiliar domains, people appear to rely on extrapolating from (not simply directly applying) related knowledge. However, we show that people's predictions are subject to two sources of error: in the estimation of quantities in a familiar domain and extension to plausible values in an unfamiliar domain. We propose that the key to successful predictions is not simply domain experience itself, but explicit experience of relevant quantities.
KeywordEveryday reasoning Iterated learning Bayesian inference Cross-cultural comparison
Indexed BySSCI
Language英语
WOS IDWOS:000361000900003
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.psych.ac.cn/handle/311026/15225
Collection社会与工程心理学研究室
Affiliation1.Univ Adelaide, Sch Psychol, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Psychol, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Stephens, Rachel G.,Dunn, John C.,Rao, Li-Lin,et al. Exploring the knowledge behind predictions in everyday cognition: an iterated learning study[J]. MEMORY & COGNITION,2015,43(7):1007-1020.
APA Stephens, Rachel G.,Dunn, John C.,Rao, Li-Lin,&Li, Shu.(2015).Exploring the knowledge behind predictions in everyday cognition: an iterated learning study.MEMORY & COGNITION,43(7),1007-1020.
MLA Stephens, Rachel G.,et al."Exploring the knowledge behind predictions in everyday cognition: an iterated learning study".MEMORY & COGNITION 43.7(2015):1007-1020.
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