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判断与决策中的时间分解效应
Alternative TitleTime unpacking effect in judgment and decision making
刘扬
Subtype硕士
Thesis Advisor孙彦 ; 李纾
2015-05
Degree Grantor中国科学院研究生院
Place of Conferral北京
Degree Discipline心理学
Keyword分解效应 时间知觉 时间判断 跨期决策 消费决策
Abstract概率判断的研究发现,当一件事被分解描述时,人们对该事件发生的概率判断值会增加,这一现象被称为分解效应。有研究者认为,跨期决策中的时间和风险决策中的概率有相似之处。相应地,在时间判断领域,有关计划谬误的研究证实了时间判断中也存在类似的分解效应。但分解任务时,人们的主观时间知觉会受到任务属性(如,难度)的影响。因此,基于前人研究,我们提出了一种更纯粹、更普遍的时间判断中的分解效应。即,单纯对时间本身的分解也可能增长人们的时间知觉,我们将这一现象称为时间分解效应。我们认为,时间分解效应在与时间相关的的判断与决策中存在,并且会通过影响主观时间知觉进而影响最终的决策偏好。本研究的结果部分证实了我们的假设。
研究一探讨了判断中的时间分解效应,共包括两个子研究。我们分别通过直接测量时间知觉的方式(研究1a)与间接测量时间知觉的方式(判断完成某项任务的给定时间是否够用)(研究1b),证实了时间分解效应的存在。研究1b的结果还表明,在涉及任务的时间判断中,这一效应受到任务难度的调节。在控制了时间流逝敏感性的影响后,该效应仍然存在。
研究二中,我们通过分解操纵跨期决策LL选项中的延迟时间知觉,证实了在跨期决策中同样存在时间分解效应,即分解会增长人们对跨期决策的LL选项中延迟时间的主观知觉。研究还证明了,时间分解效应会促使人们在跨期决策中更偏好SS选项,对LL选项中延迟的时间知觉中介了分解操纵对跨期决策的影响。
研究三分别在两个模拟的现实消费决策情境(研究3a:电话预约服务;研究3b:网站下载软件)中,通过分解操纵消费中的等待过程来检验时间分解效应,并探讨其对消费决策的影响。两个实验结果一致发现,分解反而导致人们等待过程的时间知觉变短,表现为时间判断的超可加性,未能证实时间分解效应。但分解操纵确实会通过等待时间知觉而非情绪反应的中介,对后续的消费决策产生影响。
本文提出了一个影响判断与决策的新因素——时间分解效应,在时间判断与跨期决策中证实了该效应的存在性与稳固性,及其对跨期决策的影响。但在消费决策中,发现的是时间判断的超可加性。在文章最后,我们讨论了出现这一结果的可能原因,并总结了本文的创新之处及局限之处,展望了未来相关研究方向。
Other Abstract Unpacking effect in probability judgment, which is came up with by Tversky and Koehler, refers to a phenomenon in which “unpacking” an event could increase the judgment of its probability. Given the similarity of time and probability in intertemporal and risky decision making, respectively and based on the results of research on plan fallacy, we conjecture that this unpacking effect may also be detected in time perception/judgment. We only used pure manipulation on time interval, unlike previous research that focuses on the unpacking manipulation of some events. We named this phenomenon as time unpacking effect, that is, presenting a time interval in an unpacking way rather than a compact way could lengthen subjective time perception. In this research, we conducted three studies to explore the time unpacking effect in judgment and decision making and its impact on decision making.
Study 1 used two sub-studies to investigate time unpacking effect in judgment. Study 1a demonstrated time unpacking effect through directly measuring time perception; study 1b also supported time unpacking effect by judging whether a given time is sufficient to complete a task or not. However, in study 1b, time unpacking effect is moderated by task difficulty. Besides, sensibility to experienced time did not affect this effect.
Study 2 manifested that time unpacking effect could also be detected in intertemporal decision-making. Specifically, compared with those under packed condition, participants in unpacking condition perceive time delay as longer in LL option of intertemporal choice, and thus prefer the SS option. Time perception of delay in LL option mediated the influence of unpacking manipulation on intertemporal decision making.
Study 3 explored time unpacking effect and its influence on daily consumer decision making in two different situations. Both the results of study 3a and 3b showed that unpacking manipulation lead to a decrease rather than increase in judgment of waiting time, which suggested superadditivity in temporal judgment. Still, time perception rather than emotional evaluation mediated the impact of unpacking manipulation on consumer decision making.
In the present research, we came up with a new factor of judgment and decision making called time unpacking effect. We verified time unpacking effect in temporal judgment and intertemporal decision making, and also its impact on intertemporal decision making. However, the results of consumer decision making did not support this effect. At last, we discussed possible reasons why unpacking manipulation led to opposite results in intertemporal decision and consumer decision. In addition, we proposed certain directions for future research.
Subject Area应用心理学
Language中文
Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttp://ir.psych.ac.cn/handle/311026/19632
Collection社会与工程心理学研究室
Affiliation中国科学院心理研究所
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
刘扬. 判断与决策中的时间分解效应[D]. 北京. 中国科学院研究生院,2015.
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