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Climate variation drives dengue dynamics
Xu, Lei1,2; Stige, Leif C.2; Chan, Kung-Sik3; Zhou, Jie4; Yang, Jun1; Sang, Shaowei1; Wang, Ming5; Yang, Zhicong5; Yan, Ziqiang5; Jiang, Tong6; Lu, Liang1; Yue, Yujuan1; Liu, Xiaobo1; Lin, Hualiang7; Xu, Jianguo1; Liu, Qiyong1,8,9; Stenseth, Nils Chr.2; Nils Chr. Stenseth; Jianguo Xu; Qiyong Liu
通讯作者邮箱n.c.stenseth@ibv.uio.no ; xujianguo@ icdc.cn ; liuqiyong@icdc.cn.
摘要

Dengue, a viral infection transmitted between people by mosquitoes, is one of the most rapidly spreading diseases in the world. Here, we report the analyses covering 11 y (2005-2015) from the city of Guangzhou in southern China. Using the first 8 y of data to develop an ecologically based model for the dengue system, we reliably predict the following 3 y of dengue dynamics-years with exceptionally extensive dengue outbreaks. We demonstrate that climate conditions, through the effects of rainfall and temperature on mosquito abundance and dengue transmission rate, play key roles in explaining the temporal dynamics of dengue incidence in the human population. Our study thus contributes to a better understanding of dengue dynamics and provides a predictive tool for preventive dengue reduction strategies.

关键词dengue climate structural equation model zero-inflated generalized additive models prediction
2017-01-03
语种英语
DOI10.1073/pnas.1618558114
发表期刊PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
ISSN0027-8424
卷号114期号:1页码:113-118
期刊论文类型Article
收录类别SCI
WOS关键词AEDES-ALBOPICTUS ; EFFECTIVE PREDICTOR ; CHINA ; TEMPERATURE ; TRANSMISSION ; AEGYPTI ; DISEASE ; MODELS ; FEVER ; CHALLENGES
WOS标题词Science & Technology
WOS研究方向Science & Technology - Other Topics
WOS类目Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS记录号WOS:000391093700036
资助机构National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program)(2012CB955504) ; National Natural Science Foundation of China(81273139) ; State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Independent Fund(2014SKLID106) ; Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis of the University of Oslo
引用统计
被引频次:126[WOS]   [WOS记录]     [WOS相关记录]
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://ir.psych.ac.cn/handle/311026/20978
专题社会与工程心理学研究室
通讯作者Nils Chr. Stenseth; Jianguo Xu; Qiyong Liu
作者单位1.Chinese Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Natl Inst Communicable Dis Control & Prevent, State Key Lab Infect Dis Prevent & Control, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China
2.Univ Oslo, Dept Biosci, CEES, N-0316 Oslo, Norway
3.Univ Iowa, Dept Stat & Actuarial Sci, Iowa City, IA 52242 USA
4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Psychol, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
5.Guangzhou Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Trop Dis Res Base, State Key Lab Infect Dis Prevent & Control, Guangzhou 510440, Guangdong, Peoples R China
6.China Meteorol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China
7.Guangdong Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Guangdong Prov Inst Publ Hlth, Guangzhou 511430, Guangdong, Peoples R China
8.Shandong Univ, Climate Change & Hlth Ctr, Jinan 250012, Peoples R China
9.World Hlth Org Collaborating Ctr Vector Surveilla, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China
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Xu, Lei,Stige, Leif C.,Chan, Kung-Sik,et al. Climate variation drives dengue dynamics[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,2017,114(1):113-118.
APA Xu, Lei.,Stige, Leif C..,Chan, Kung-Sik.,Zhou, Jie.,Yang, Jun.,...&Qiyong Liu.(2017).Climate variation drives dengue dynamics.PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,114(1),113-118.
MLA Xu, Lei,et al."Climate variation drives dengue dynamics".PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 114.1(2017):113-118.
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