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Climate variation drives dengue dynamics
Xu, Lei1,2; Stige, Leif C.2; Chan, Kung-Sik3; Zhou, Jie4; Yang, Jun1; Sang, Shaowei1; Wang, Ming5; Yang, Zhicong5; Yan, Ziqiang5; Jiang, Tong6; Lu, Liang1; Yue, Yujuan1; Liu, Xiaobo1; Lin, Hualiang7; Xu, Jianguo1; Liu, Qiyong1,8,9; Stenseth, Nils Chr.2; Nils Chr. Stenseth; Jianguo Xu; Qiyong Liu
2017-01-03
Source PublicationPROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
Correspondent Emailn.c.stenseth@ibv.uio.no ; xujianguo@ icdc.cn ; liuqiyong@icdc.cn.
ISSN0027-8424
SubtypeArticle
Volume114Issue:1Pages:113-118
Abstract

Dengue, a viral infection transmitted between people by mosquitoes, is one of the most rapidly spreading diseases in the world. Here, we report the analyses covering 11 y (2005-2015) from the city of Guangzhou in southern China. Using the first 8 y of data to develop an ecologically based model for the dengue system, we reliably predict the following 3 y of dengue dynamics-years with exceptionally extensive dengue outbreaks. We demonstrate that climate conditions, through the effects of rainfall and temperature on mosquito abundance and dengue transmission rate, play key roles in explaining the temporal dynamics of dengue incidence in the human population. Our study thus contributes to a better understanding of dengue dynamics and provides a predictive tool for preventive dengue reduction strategies.

Keyworddengue climate structural equation model zero-inflated generalized additive models prediction
DOI10.1073/pnas.1618558114
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding OrganizationNational Basic Research Program of China (973 Program)(2012CB955504) ; National Natural Science Foundation of China(81273139) ; State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Independent Fund(2014SKLID106) ; Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis of the University of Oslo
WOS Research AreaScience & Technology - Other Topics
WOS SubjectMultidisciplinary Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000391093700036
WOS HeadingsScience & Technology
WOS KeywordAEDES-ALBOPICTUS ; EFFECTIVE PREDICTOR ; CHINA ; TEMPERATURE ; TRANSMISSION ; AEGYPTI ; DISEASE ; MODELS ; FEVER ; CHALLENGES
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.psych.ac.cn/handle/311026/20978
Collection社会与工程心理学研究室
Corresponding AuthorNils Chr. Stenseth; Jianguo Xu; Qiyong Liu
Affiliation1.Chinese Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Natl Inst Communicable Dis Control & Prevent, State Key Lab Infect Dis Prevent & Control, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China
2.Univ Oslo, Dept Biosci, CEES, N-0316 Oslo, Norway
3.Univ Iowa, Dept Stat & Actuarial Sci, Iowa City, IA 52242 USA
4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Psychol, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
5.Guangzhou Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Trop Dis Res Base, State Key Lab Infect Dis Prevent & Control, Guangzhou 510440, Guangdong, Peoples R China
6.China Meteorol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China
7.Guangdong Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Guangdong Prov Inst Publ Hlth, Guangzhou 511430, Guangdong, Peoples R China
8.Shandong Univ, Climate Change & Hlth Ctr, Jinan 250012, Peoples R China
9.World Hlth Org Collaborating Ctr Vector Surveilla, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Xu, Lei,Stige, Leif C.,Chan, Kung-Sik,et al. Climate variation drives dengue dynamics[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,2017,114(1):113-118.
APA Xu, Lei.,Stige, Leif C..,Chan, Kung-Sik.,Zhou, Jie.,Yang, Jun.,...&Qiyong Liu.(2017).Climate variation drives dengue dynamics.PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,114(1),113-118.
MLA Xu, Lei,et al."Climate variation drives dengue dynamics".PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 114.1(2017):113-118.
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