PSYCH OpenIR  > 社会与工程心理学研究室
Climate variation drives dengue dynamics
Xu, Lei1,2; Stige, Leif C.2; Chan, Kung-Sik3; Zhou, Jie4; Yang, Jun1; Sang, Shaowei1; Wang, Ming5; Yang, Zhicong5; Yan, Ziqiang5; Jiang, Tong6; Lu, Liang1; Yue, Yujuan1; Liu, Xiaobo1; Lin, Hualiang7; Xu, Jianguo1; Liu, Qiyong1,8,9; Stenseth, Nils Chr.2; Nils Chr. Stenseth; Jianguo Xu; Qiyong Liu
2017-01-03
发表期刊PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
通讯作者邮箱n.c.stenseth@ibv.uio.no ; xujianguo@ icdc.cn ; liuqiyong@icdc.cn.
ISSN0027-8424
文章类型Article
卷号114期号:1页码:113-118
摘要

Dengue, a viral infection transmitted between people by mosquitoes, is one of the most rapidly spreading diseases in the world. Here, we report the analyses covering 11 y (2005-2015) from the city of Guangzhou in southern China. Using the first 8 y of data to develop an ecologically based model for the dengue system, we reliably predict the following 3 y of dengue dynamics-years with exceptionally extensive dengue outbreaks. We demonstrate that climate conditions, through the effects of rainfall and temperature on mosquito abundance and dengue transmission rate, play key roles in explaining the temporal dynamics of dengue incidence in the human population. Our study thus contributes to a better understanding of dengue dynamics and provides a predictive tool for preventive dengue reduction strategies.

关键词dengue climate structural equation model zero-inflated generalized additive models prediction
DOI10.1073/pnas.1618558114
收录类别SCI
语种英语
项目资助者National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program)(2012CB955504) ; National Natural Science Foundation of China(81273139) ; State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Independent Fund(2014SKLID106) ; Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis of the University of Oslo
WOS研究方向Science & Technology - Other Topics
WOS类目Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS记录号WOS:000391093700036
WOS标题词Science & Technology
关键词[WOS]AEDES-ALBOPICTUS ; EFFECTIVE PREDICTOR ; CHINA ; TEMPERATURE ; TRANSMISSION ; AEGYPTI ; DISEASE ; MODELS ; FEVER ; CHALLENGES
引用统计
被引频次:27[WOS]   [WOS记录]     [WOS相关记录]
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://ir.psych.ac.cn/handle/311026/20978
专题社会与工程心理学研究室
通讯作者Nils Chr. Stenseth; Jianguo Xu; Qiyong Liu
作者单位1.Chinese Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Natl Inst Communicable Dis Control & Prevent, State Key Lab Infect Dis Prevent & Control, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China
2.Univ Oslo, Dept Biosci, CEES, N-0316 Oslo, Norway
3.Univ Iowa, Dept Stat & Actuarial Sci, Iowa City, IA 52242 USA
4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Psychol, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
5.Guangzhou Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Trop Dis Res Base, State Key Lab Infect Dis Prevent & Control, Guangzhou 510440, Guangdong, Peoples R China
6.China Meteorol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China
7.Guangdong Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Guangdong Prov Inst Publ Hlth, Guangzhou 511430, Guangdong, Peoples R China
8.Shandong Univ, Climate Change & Hlth Ctr, Jinan 250012, Peoples R China
9.World Hlth Org Collaborating Ctr Vector Surveilla, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Xu, Lei,Stige, Leif C.,Chan, Kung-Sik,et al. Climate variation drives dengue dynamics[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,2017,114(1):113-118.
APA Xu, Lei.,Stige, Leif C..,Chan, Kung-Sik.,Zhou, Jie.,Yang, Jun.,...&Qiyong Liu.(2017).Climate variation drives dengue dynamics.PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,114(1),113-118.
MLA Xu, Lei,et al."Climate variation drives dengue dynamics".PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 114.1(2017):113-118.
条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小 文献类型 版本类型 开放类型 使用许可
Climate variation dr(1415KB)期刊论文作者接受稿限制开放CC BY-NC-SA浏览 请求全文
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
查看访问统计
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Xu, Lei]的文章
[Stige, Leif C.]的文章
[Chan, Kung-Sik]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Xu, Lei]的文章
[Stige, Leif C.]的文章
[Chan, Kung-Sik]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Xu, Lei]的文章
[Stige, Leif C.]的文章
[Chan, Kung-Sik]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享
文件名: Climate variation drives dengue dynamics.pdf
格式: Adobe PDF
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。