| Climate variation drives dengue dynamics | |
Xu, Lei1,2; Stige, Leif C.2; Chan, Kung-Sik3; Zhou, Jie4 ; Yang, Jun1; Sang, Shaowei1; Wang, Ming5; Yang, Zhicong5; Yan, Ziqiang5; Jiang, Tong6; Lu, Liang1; Yue, Yujuan1; Liu, Xiaobo1; Lin, Hualiang7; Xu, Jianguo1; Liu, Qiyong1,8,9; Stenseth, Nils Chr.2; Nils Chr. Stenseth; Jianguo Xu; Qiyong Liu
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| 通讯作者邮箱 | n.c.stenseth@ibv.uio.no ; xujianguo@ icdc.cn ; liuqiyong@icdc.cn. |
| 摘要 | Dengue, a viral infection transmitted between people by mosquitoes, is one of the most rapidly spreading diseases in the world. Here, we report the analyses covering 11 y (2005-2015) from the city of Guangzhou in southern China. Using the first 8 y of data to develop an ecologically based model for the dengue system, we reliably predict the following 3 y of dengue dynamics-years with exceptionally extensive dengue outbreaks. We demonstrate that climate conditions, through the effects of rainfall and temperature on mosquito abundance and dengue transmission rate, play key roles in explaining the temporal dynamics of dengue incidence in the human population. Our study thus contributes to a better understanding of dengue dynamics and provides a predictive tool for preventive dengue reduction strategies. |
| 关键词 | dengue climate structural equation model zero-inflated generalized additive models prediction |
| 2017-01-03 | |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| DOI | 10.1073/pnas.1618558114 |
| 发表期刊 | PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
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| ISSN | 0027-8424 |
| 卷号 | 114期号:1页码:113-118 |
| 期刊论文类型 | Article |
| 收录类别 | SCI |
| WOS关键词 | AEDES-ALBOPICTUS ; EFFECTIVE PREDICTOR ; CHINA ; TEMPERATURE ; TRANSMISSION ; AEGYPTI ; DISEASE ; MODELS ; FEVER ; CHALLENGES |
| WOS标题词 | Science & Technology |
| WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
| WOS类目 | Multidisciplinary Sciences |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000391093700036 |
| 资助机构 | National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program)(2012CB955504) ; National Natural Science Foundation of China(81273139) ; State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Independent Fund(2014SKLID106) ; Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis of the University of Oslo |
| 引用统计 | |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://ir.psych.ac.cn/handle/311026/20978 |
| 专题 | 社会与工程心理学研究室 |
| 通讯作者 | Nils Chr. Stenseth; Jianguo Xu; Qiyong Liu |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Natl Inst Communicable Dis Control & Prevent, State Key Lab Infect Dis Prevent & Control, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China 2.Univ Oslo, Dept Biosci, CEES, N-0316 Oslo, Norway 3.Univ Iowa, Dept Stat & Actuarial Sci, Iowa City, IA 52242 USA 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Psychol, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 5.Guangzhou Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Trop Dis Res Base, State Key Lab Infect Dis Prevent & Control, Guangzhou 510440, Guangdong, Peoples R China 6.China Meteorol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China 7.Guangdong Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Guangdong Prov Inst Publ Hlth, Guangzhou 511430, Guangdong, Peoples R China 8.Shandong Univ, Climate Change & Hlth Ctr, Jinan 250012, Peoples R China 9.World Hlth Org Collaborating Ctr Vector Surveilla, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Xu, Lei,Stige, Leif C.,Chan, Kung-Sik,et al. Climate variation drives dengue dynamics[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,2017,114(1):113-118. |
| APA | Xu, Lei.,Stige, Leif C..,Chan, Kung-Sik.,Zhou, Jie.,Yang, Jun.,...&Qiyong Liu.(2017).Climate variation drives dengue dynamics.PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,114(1),113-118. |
| MLA | Xu, Lei,et al."Climate variation drives dengue dynamics".PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 114.1(2017):113-118. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 文献类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| Climate variation dr（1415KB） | 期刊论文 | 作者接受稿 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 请求全文 | |
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