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Models of risky choice: A state-trace and signed difference analysis
Dunn, John C.1,2; Rao, Li-Lin3,4
Corresponding AuthorDunn, John C.(john.dunn@uwa.edu.au)
2019-06-01
Source PublicationJOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL PSYCHOLOGY
ISSN0022-2496
Volume90Pages:61-75
AbstractModels of risky choice fall into two broad classes; fixed utility models that satisfy the condition of simple scalability and everything else. While it is known that choice behavior can be observed that is inconsistent with all models, this has largely been based on the construction of special cases. We use state trace analysis and signed difference analysis to test a set of models on a set of ecologically representative risky choices. An advantage of this approach is that there is no requirement to posit a particular form for the error function that links the difference in the utilities of two gambles, A and B, with the probability of choosing A over B. We presented groups of participants with 30 variable gambles (A), each paired with one of four fixed gambles (B). We use state-trace analysis to test the prediction of all fixed utility models that the probability of choosing each A has the same order for all B. The results show that this prediction is not confirmed and a more complex model is required. We then use signed difference analysis to test two more complex models the random subjective expected utility model based on Decision Field Theory and a fixed utility mixture model. We derive a key prediction from the random subjective expected utility model and show that it is confirmed by the data. In contrast, the data are shown to be inconsistent with the fixed utility mixture model. (C) 2019 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
KeywordRisky choice State-trace analysis Signed difference analysis Models of decision making Fixed utility models Mixture models Decision field theory Independence
DOI10.1016/j.jmp.2018.12.005
Indexed BySCI ; SCI
Language英语
Funding OrganizationAustralian Research Council ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS ; Young Elite Scientists Sponsorship Program by CAST
Funding ProjectAustralian Research Council[DP130101535] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[31671166] ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS[2015067] ; Young Elite Scientists Sponsorship Program by CAST[YESS20160143]
WOS Research AreaMathematics ; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences ; Psychology
WOS SubjectMathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications ; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods ; Psychology, Mathematical
WOS IDWOS:000473554000006
PublisherACADEMIC PRESS INC ELSEVIER SCIENCE
WOS KeywordDECISION-MAKING ; PROSPECT-THEORY ; SIMILARITY
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.psych.ac.cn/handle/311026/29127
Collection中国科学院行为科学重点实验室
Corresponding AuthorDunn, John C.
Affiliation1.Univ Western Australia, Nedlands, WA, Australia
2.Edith Cowan Univ, Churchlands, WA, Australia
3.Chinese Acad Sci, CAS Key Lab Behav Sci, Inst Psychol, Beijing, Peoples R China
4.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Dept Psychol, Beijing, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Dunn, John C.,Rao, Li-Lin. Models of risky choice: A state-trace and signed difference analysis[J]. JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL PSYCHOLOGY,2019,90:61-75.
APA Dunn, John C.,&Rao, Li-Lin.(2019).Models of risky choice: A state-trace and signed difference analysis.JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL PSYCHOLOGY,90,61-75.
MLA Dunn, John C.,et al."Models of risky choice: A state-trace and signed difference analysis".JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL PSYCHOLOGY 90(2019):61-75.
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