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跨期决策的过程验证
Project Number31471005
李纾
Subtype面上项目
Project Source国家自然科学基金
Project Level国家级项目
2015
End Date2018-12-31
Abstract跨期决策需要决策者在眼前的利益与未来的利益之间做出权衡与取舍,是人类赖以生存和发展的重大决策。如何进行跨期决策是人类不断认识和改造世界过程中遇到的未解之谜。主流跨期理论认为,跨期决策是一个补偿性的、折扣求和最大化的过程;而非主流的跨期理论则认为,跨期决策是非补偿性的,并不遵循折扣家族理论所假设的折扣求和过程。这一谜团为何一直没有得以破解,或许是因为我们未找到揭示其心理过程的令人信服的证据。为此,我们针对跨期决策过程,借助行为实验、眼动记录法、功能磁共振成像等技术,系统探索跨期决策的心理和神经机制,为回答跨期决策是否遵循补偿性规则这一问题提供了汇聚性证据。本研究将依据折扣家族理论所假设的折扣过程、求和过程、总分最大化等步骤,展开决策过程验证,以期加深人们对跨期决策机制的理解,从而为人类远见和绿色意识的培养与实践提供科学的理论支持。
Other AbstractIntertemporal choice is vital to human survival and development. How to make an intertemporal choice is a compelling question facing scientists today. Mainstream theories of intertemporal choice hold that choices are based on a compensatory expectation-maximizing process. Some researchers, however, argued that intertemporal choice is based on a non-compensatory process, foregoing discouting and summing. People rely on only one (or a few) key dimension (s) rather than integrating information from all dimensions of an option for making a decision. To tackle this question and further our knowledge of the mechanism underlying human decision making, concrete and convincing evidence based on psychological process is required. Therefore, we designed and conducted a series of behavioral and neural experiments to systematically investigate the process of intertemporal choice. We organized and designed our experiments in line with the computation steps assumed by the expectation rule, that is, from the process of discouting process, to summing process, and then to maximizing overall values. It is our hope that these independent studies can help us to gradually understand the global process underlying intertemporal choice, thereby providing psychology- and neuroscience-based theoretical foundations for facilitating the practice of people's foresight and green awareness.
Project Funding85
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Project Intro.跨期决策(intertemporal decision-making)指对发生在不同时间点上的结果之间进行的权衡。跨期决策可以小至个体的日常生活和经济行为,也可以大到一个公司或者国家的策略制定。跨期决策需要决策者在眼前的利益与未来的利益之间做出权衡与取舍,是人类赖以生存和发展的重大决策。跨期决策领域中传统的折扣家族模型认为,决策者会根据选项的时间和结果,像银行投资计算收益率一样,对未来价值进行折扣计算,选出折扣值较大的选项;而非折扣模型则认为,决策者受限于认知加工能力等因素的影响,会运用维度比较等启发式规则完成决策,并不存在复杂的折扣计算过程。因此,在解释跨期决策的认知加工过程时,折扣模型和非折扣模型的主要分歧点是,跨期决策是否基于折扣计算过程。然而,前人受限于研究范式和方法等问题,尚未能对这一分歧点进行直接有效的检验。 按照计划,国家自然科学基金面上项目“跨期决策的过程验证”(31471005,2015~2018)项目主要围绕跨期决策中的补偿性和非补偿性规则这一核心问题,密切结合行为学(认知实验和眼动追踪)和神经影像学两种互为补充的研究手段,检验折扣理论的补偿性决策过程,探讨跨期决策的心理和神经机制。在项目执行期间课题组依据折扣家族理论所假设的折扣过程、求和过程、总分最大化等步骤,展开决策过程验证。我们针对跨期决策过程,借助行为实验、眼动记录法、功能磁共振成像等技术,系统探索跨期决策的心理和神经机制,为回答“跨期决策是否遵循补偿性规则”这一问题提供了汇聚性证据。我们获得的证据支持:跨期决策可能遵循非折扣模型预期的简捷、启发式规则,而不是折扣模型所假设的补偿性、基于选项规则。本项目也为培养国内跨期决策人才做出贡献,如培养研究生刘洪志获得2016年度中国科协“高端科技创新智库青年项目”《风险决策与跨期决策的内在机制探索——基于眼动追踪技术》,执行年限:2016.9-2017.9,项目经费:10万(共49名)。
Document Type项目
Identifierhttp://ir.psych.ac.cn/handle/311026/31131
Collection社会与工程心理学研究室
Affiliation中国科学院心理研究所
First Author AffilicationInstitute of Psychology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
李纾.跨期决策的过程验证.2015.
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