Institutional Repository, Institute of Psychology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Towards theory integration: Threshold model as a link between signal detection theory, fast-and-frugal trees and evidence accumulation theory | |
Iztok Hozo PhD1; Benjamin Djulbegovic MD PhD3,4,5; Shenghua Luan PhD5; Athanasios Tsalatsanis PhD2; Gerd Gigerenzer PhD5 | |
第一作者 | Iztok Hozo PhD |
通讯作者邮箱 | bdjulbeg@health.usf.edu |
摘要 | Rationale, aims and objectivesTheories of decision making are divided between those aiming to help decision makers in the real, large' world and those who study decisions in idealized small' world settings. For the most part, these large- and small-world decision theories remain disconnected. MethodsWe linked the small-world decision theoretic concepts of signal detection theory (SDT) and evidence accumulation theory (EAT) to the threshold model and the large world of heuristic decision making that rely on fast-and-frugal decision trees (FFT). ResultsWe connected these large- and small-world theories by demonstrating that seemingly different decision-making concepts are actually equivalent. In doing so, we were able (1) to link the threshold model to EAT and FFT, thereby creating decision criteria that take into account both the classification accuracy of FFT and the consequences built in the threshold model; (2) to demonstrate how threshold criteria can be used as a strategy for optimal selection of cues when constructing FFT; and (3) to show that the compensatory strategy expressed in the threshold model can be linked to a non-compensatory FFT approach to decision making. We also showed how construction and performance of FFT depend on having reliable information - the results were highly sensitive to the estimates of benefits and harms of health interventions. We illustrate the practical usefulness of our analysis by describing an FFT we developed for prescribing statins for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease. ConclusionsBy linking SDT and EAT to the compensatory threshold model and to non-compensatory heuristic decision making (FFT), we showed how these two decision strategies are ultimately linked within a broader theoretical framework and thereby respond to calls for integrating decision theory paradigms. |
2017 | |
DOI | 10.1111/jep.12490 |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF EVALUATION IN CLINICAL PRACTICE |
ISSN | 1356-1294 |
卷号 | 23期号:1页码:49-65 |
期刊论文类型 | article |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://ir.psych.ac.cn/handle/311026/32050 |
专题 | 中国科学院心理研究所 |
作者单位 | 1.Professor, Department of Mathematics, Indiana University, Gary, IN, USA 2.Associate Professor, USF Health Program for Comparative Effectiveness Research, Division for Evidence-Based Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL, USA 3.Professor of Oncology, Departments of Hematology and Health Outcome Behavior, H. Lee Moffitt Cancer Center and Research Institute, Tampa, FL, USA 4.Professor of Oncology, Departments of Hematology and Health Outcome Behavior, H. Lee Moffitt Cancer Center and Research Institute, Tampa, FL, USA 4Director of Medical 5.Professor, 6Researcher, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Berlin, Germany |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Iztok Hozo PhD,Benjamin Djulbegovic MD PhD,Shenghua Luan PhD,et al. Towards theory integration: Threshold model as a link between signal detection theory, fast-and-frugal trees and evidence accumulation theory[J]. JOURNAL OF EVALUATION IN CLINICAL PRACTICE,2017,23(1):49-65. |
APA | Iztok Hozo PhD,Benjamin Djulbegovic MD PhD,Shenghua Luan PhD,Athanasios Tsalatsanis PhD,&Gerd Gigerenzer PhD.(2017).Towards theory integration: Threshold model as a link between signal detection theory, fast-and-frugal trees and evidence accumulation theory.JOURNAL OF EVALUATION IN CLINICAL PRACTICE,23(1),49-65. |
MLA | Iztok Hozo PhD,et al."Towards theory integration: Threshold model as a link between signal detection theory, fast-and-frugal trees and evidence accumulation theory".JOURNAL OF EVALUATION IN CLINICAL PRACTICE 23.1(2017):49-65. |
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