Institutional Repository of Key Laboratory of Mental Health, CAS
Establishment of a risk prediction model for suicide attempts in first-episode and drug naive patients with major depressive disorder | |
Yang, Wanqiu1,2; Wang, Xiaohong3; Kang, Chuanyi3; Yang, Liying4; Liu, Di5; Zhao, Na3; Zhang, Xiangyang6,7 | |
通讯作者邮箱 | zhaona@hrbmu.edu.cn (n. zhao) ; zhangxy@psych.nc.cn (x. zhang) |
心理所单位排序 | 6 |
摘要 | Background: Suicide is common in patients with major depressive disorder (MDD) and has serious consequences for individuals and families. This study aims to establish a risk prediction model for suicide attempts in MDD patients to make the detection of suicide risk more accurate and effective. Methods: A cross-sectional survey, clinical examination, and biochemical indicator tests were performed on 1718 first-episode and drug nai ve patients with major depressive disorder. We used Machine Learning to establish a risk prediction model for suicide attempts in FEDN patients with MDD. Results: Five predictors were identified by LASSO regression analysis from a total of 20 variables studied, namely psychotic symptoms, anxiety symptoms, thyroid peroxidase antibodies (ATPO), total cholesterol (TC), and highdensity lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C). The model constructed using the five predictors displayed moderate predictive ability, with an area under the ROC of 0.771 in the training set and 0.720 in the validation set. The DCA curve showed that the nomogram could be applied clinically if the risk threshold was between 22 % and 60 %. The risk threshold was found to be between 20 % and 60 % in external validation. Conclusion: Introducing psychotic symptoms, anxiety symptoms, ATPO, TC, and HDL-C to the risk nomogram increased its usefulness for predicting suicide risk in patients with MDD. It may be useful in clinical decisionmaking or in discussions with patients, especially in crisis interventions. |
关键词 | Major depression Suicide attempts Nomogram Risk factor |
2023-10-01 | |
语种 | 英语 |
DOI | 10.1016/j.ajp.2023.103732 |
发表期刊 | ASIAN JOURNAL OF PSYCHIATRY |
ISSN | 1876-2018 |
卷号 | 88页码:10 |
期刊论文类型 | 实证研究 |
收录类别 | SCI |
资助项目 | Double First Class University Plan ; Yunnan University ; National Key R amp ; D Program of China[2017YFE0103700] ; First Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University[2021B22] |
出版者 | ELSEVIER |
WOS关键词 | NATIONAL-HEALTH ; METABOLIC SYNDROME ; ASSOCIATION ; YOUNG ; CHOLESTEROL ; PREVALENCE ; BEHAVIOR ; SCALE ; DISTURBANCES ; THYROTROPIN |
WOS研究方向 | Psychiatry |
WOS类目 | Psychiatry |
WOS记录号 | WOS:001062317800001 |
WOS分区 | Q1 |
资助机构 | Double First Class University Plan ; Yunnan University ; National Key R amp ; D Program of China ; First Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://ir.psych.ac.cn/handle/311026/46061 |
专题 | 中国科学院心理健康重点实验室 |
通讯作者 | Zhao, Na; Zhang, Xiangyang |
作者单位 | 1.Yunnan Univ, Sch Ethnol & Sociol, Kunming, Yunnan, Peoples R China 2.Yunnan Univ, Sch Med, Kunming, Yunnan, Peoples R China 3.Harbin Med Univ, Affiliated Hosp 1, Dept Psychiat, Harbin, Peoples R China 4.Dalian Mental Hlth Ctr, Dalian Peoples Hosp 7, Dalian, Peoples R China 5.Harbin Med Univ, Sch Marxism, Harbin, Peoples R China 6.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Psychol, CAS Key Lab Mental Hlth, Beijing, Peoples R China 7.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Dept Psychol, Beijing, Peoples R China |
通讯作者单位 | 中国科学院心理健康重点实验室 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Yang, Wanqiu,Wang, Xiaohong,Kang, Chuanyi,et al. Establishment of a risk prediction model for suicide attempts in first-episode and drug naive patients with major depressive disorder[J]. ASIAN JOURNAL OF PSYCHIATRY,2023,88:10. |
APA | Yang, Wanqiu.,Wang, Xiaohong.,Kang, Chuanyi.,Yang, Liying.,Liu, Di.,...&Zhang, Xiangyang.(2023).Establishment of a risk prediction model for suicide attempts in first-episode and drug naive patients with major depressive disorder.ASIAN JOURNAL OF PSYCHIATRY,88,10. |
MLA | Yang, Wanqiu,et al."Establishment of a risk prediction model for suicide attempts in first-episode and drug naive patients with major depressive disorder".ASIAN JOURNAL OF PSYCHIATRY 88(2023):10. |
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