中国科学院心理研究所机构知识库

近年来,各种社会突发事件和群体性冲突事件时有发生,极大地影响了社会稳定,探寻具有实用价值的社会预警技术,有效开展预测预报,无疑具有重要的政治意义和社会意义。通过引入社会心理学中的判别分析技术,建立起多元分析的社会预警判别函数,运用回代检测和实证检验的方法,对取自云南省11个边疆少数民族县的382份调查问卷进行验证,判别分析判正率达66.7%,说明这一技术可用于预测社会群体性事件的发生概率,并可发现影响群体性事件发生的主要因素。

In recent years in China, there have been some social emergency events and group conflicts which have much disturbed our social stability. The study of practical and effective early-warning technology for such events has much political and social significance. Adopting the technology of discriminatory analysis in social psychology and the multi-analysis of the discriminant function for the early-warning system plus some tests, this research has analyzed 382 questionnaires from eleven border and minority counties in Yunnan Province, and concluded that the accuracy of this technology is 66.7%, which has proved to be effective in predicting the probability of emergency events and group conflicts as well as the possible causes.