企业经营风险决策的组织行为学研究
李剑锋
学位类型博士
导师徐联仓
1995
学位授予单位中国科学院心理研究所
学位授予地点中国科学院心理研究所
学位专业管理心理学
关键词风险决策 风险认知 风险偏好 风险评估 风险因素 风险管理 冒险行为 效用测量 效用理论 经营决策
摘要本文系统深入地研究了我国企业经营管理人员在各种决策情景下的风险偏好和对各种经营决策风险的认知与评估。共有四项研究:研究一是效用分析。214名企业经理和46名中学校长填答了效用测量表。结果表示:(1)在不同决策情景下,被试的风险偏好会发生变化。在多数情景下,大多数被试表现出风险厌恶;在个别情景下,大多数被试倾向于冒险。(2)在一些决策情景下,企业经理与中学校长、男经理与女经理、资历高的经理与资历低的经理、职位高的经理与职位低的经理、非国有企业的经理与国有企业的经理、中小企业的经理与大型企业的经理在风险偏好方面存在显著差异;而在其他决策情景下则没有显著差异。(3)在所有决策情景下,不同年龄、婚姻状况、工龄、学历的经理在风险偏好方面均不存在显著差异。研究二是风险决策情景模拟。82名企业经理填答了风险决策情景模拟表。结果发现,企业文化、企业经营状况、生存度和上偏好等因素能够影响企业经理的风险决策行为。研究三是决策风险认知。69名企业经理填答了决策案例风险认知表。结果表明:(1)对于企业战略决策,企业经理认为市场分析与预测不准、政治不稳定、经济政策调整等因素风险较大;(2)对于投资决策,企业经理认为市场分析与预测有误、新技术新工艺出现、市场需求变化等因素风险较大;(3)对于生产决策,企业经理认为质量控制欠佳、技术落后、产品积压等因素风险较大;(4)对于新产品开发决策,企业经理认为开发资金不足、开发项目选择有误、开发能力有限等因素风险较大;(5)对于合资经营决策,企业经理认为外方资金不到位、国家有关政策变化、产品无销路、外方技术设备高报价等因素风险较大;(6)对于人事决策,企业经理认为对该人了解有误、对该人适合与否判断失误等因素风险较大;(7)对于营销决策,企业经理认为产品不适销对路、产品质量有问题、消费需求变化等因素风险较大;(8)对于公关决策,企业经理认为公关战略失误、公关目标模糊等因素风险较大;(9)对于广告决策,企业经理认为违反法律法规、广告目标模糊、创意策划欠佳等因素风险较大;(10)对于国际经营决策,企业经理认为两国外交关系恶化、产品不适合国外消费者、国外行情不熟悉因素风险较大。研究四是有结构访谈。5名企业经理分别回答了访谈表中的所有问题。结果表明:(1)被试认为风险是决策可能的不利后果。(2)被试的自我评估与效用测量的结果基本一致;(3)被试承认风险是企业经营的必然伴生物;(4)被试在风险认知方面存在个别差异。本文还讨论了研究的重要意义,指出了需要进一步探讨的问题。
其他摘要This thesis has investigated the risk preferences of the Chinese company managers in kinds of simulated decision situations and their perceptions of risk concerning types of business decisions. Four studies are conducted: Study I is utility analysis. 214 company managers and 46 middle - school headmasters have responded to Utility Measurement Survey. The results indicate: (1) The risk preferences of the managers vary in the different decision situations. In most of the situations, most of the managers are risk aversion; In few situations, they are risk-seeking. (2) In some of the decision situations, there are significant differences on risk preference between business managers and school headmasters, male managers and female managers, senior managers and junior managers, managers with high qualifications and managers with low qualifications, non-state-owned firms' managers and state-owned firms' managers, medium-small sized firms' managers and large-sized firms' managers. In the other situations there aren't significant differences between them. (3) In all of the decision situations, so significant differences on risk preference are found among managers with different marriage, experience, age and education. Study II is risky decision simulation. The Risky Decision Situations Simulation Survey is administered to 82 company managers. The result indicates that firm culture, business condition, survival limit and risk preference of the superior influence the managers' risk decision-making behavior. Study III is perceptions of business decision risks. 68 company managers have filled in Decision Cases Risk Perception Inventory. The results indicate: (1) Inaccurate market analysis and prediction, instable politics and the changes of economic policy are the more risky elements to strategy decision. (2) Erroneous market analysis and prediction, appearance of new technology and the changes of market demands are the more risky elements to investment decision. (3) Poor quality control, backward technology and too large stocks are the more risky elements to production decision. (4) Shortage of development fund, wrong choice in development project and limitation of the development ability are the more risky elements to new production development decision. (5) No payment of the foreign partner's capital, the changes of national relevant policy, difficulty in marketing, too high selling prices of foreign partner's equipments are the more risky elements to joint-venture decision. (6) Unfamilarity with oneself and misjudgement in qualification of oneself are the more risky elements to personnel decision. (7) Bad market of the product, defects in product quality and the changes of consumers demands are the more risky elements to marketing decision. (8) Wrong strategy and ambiguous goals are the more risky elements to public relation decision. (9) Violation of the law, ambiguous goals and poor creation are the more risky elements to advertisement decision. (10) Deterioration of diplomatic relations, unsuitable products for foreign consumers and unfamilarity with foreign market are the more risky elements to international business decision. Study IV is structured interview. 5 company managers have answered all questions of the Interview Questionnaire. The results indicate: (1) The managers think that risks are the possible unfavourable consequences of decisions; (2) The self-ratings of the managers coordinate with the results of utility measurement; (3) The managers admit that risks always accompany bussiness decision; (4) Individual difference is found among managers on risk perception. This thesis has also pointed out the important implications of the research and discussed several further questions.
页数150
语种中文
文献类型学位论文
条目标识符http://ir.psych.ac.cn/handle/311026/4790
专题中国科学院心理研究所回溯数据库(1956-2010)
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李剑锋. 企业经营风险决策的组织行为学研究[D]. 中国科学院心理研究所. 中国科学院心理研究所,1995.
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