中国科学院心理研究所机构知识库

本研究运用历史档案分析、个案研究、问卷、量表、访谈、德尔菲法、结构方程建模等多种研究方法、心理逆转理论及多元统计技术研究了煤矿工人的冒险行为、冒险行为和人为事故的关系、冒险者的内在心理结构、影响冒险行为的因素、各种影响因素与冒险行为的结构关系模式及煤矿人为事故发生可能性预测的数学模型。

结果表明:

（1）煤矿人为事故的发生是煤矿工人的冒险行为造成的，并能根据煤矿工人的冒险行为表现有效预测煤矿人为事故发生的可能性;

(2)煤矿工人的冒险行为深受需要、工作状况、组织绩效、个人精神状况、个性表现、工作满意度、领导的安全管理状况、生产条件、隐患认知等因素的影响，这些因素主要归属于企业的组织管理状况、生产环境条件及工人的个体特点表现等三大因素;

(3)因煤矿工人对企业的组织管理状况、生产环境条件及自身个体特点表现等三大因素的认知差异，煤矿工人的冒险行为表现具有一定的权变性;

(4)煤矿工人的冒险行为表现与需要、工作状况等九大影响因素及各种背景变量之间存在复杂的结构关系模式，并可以通过这些变量有效地预测冒险行为出现的可能性;

(5)煤矿工人因其冒险程度的差异，在唤醒回避、目标指向、确认规章制度及是否关心他人等内在心理结构方面是不一致的;

(6)通过验证研究，证明了以上研究结论的合理性、科学性、创造性及有利于事故预防的价值。首次系统介绍、运用逆转理论、结构方程建模、补充、验证风险平衡理论、提出关于冒险行为的结构化权变理论及预测人为事故发生可能性的数学模型等都具有巨大的理论探索及创造意义。

本研究在预测人为事故的发生可能性;预测、评价企业安全状况及煤矿工人的行为表现;培训、选拔职工;健全安全监察法规、措施;提高企业安全管理绩效等方面有价值。

The risk-taking behavior of the coal workers，relations between risk-taking behavior and human accidents，intrinsic mental construction of the risk-takers，factors influencing the risk-taking behavior，the constructive model of relation between various factors and the risk-taking behavior，and mathematical model on predicting the probability of the colliery's human accidents were researched by using much study method，such as historical data analysis，case study，questionnire，scale study， interview，Delphi method，constructive equation modelling，etc.，mental reversal theory and multivariate statistical technology.

It is shown:

（1）the colliery's human accidents were caused by the risk-taking behavior of the coal workers，and the probability of the colliery's human accidents was effectly predicted by the risk-taking behavior of the coal workers.

（2）the risk-taking behavior of the coal workers was deeply influenced by need of the coal workers，state of work，organizational performance，personal mental state，manifestation of personality characteristics，satisfactory degree of work, state of leaders' safety management, condition of production，cognition of potential hazard，etc.，These factors mainly belong to managemental state of organization，condition of production and surroundings, and manifestation of workers' personal characteristics.

（3）Because the difference of the coal workers' cognition on managemental state of orgaization，condition of production and surroundings, and manifestation of the workers' personal characteristics, etc., there exist contingency on manifestation of the coal workers' risk-taking behavior.

（4）There exist complex constructive model of relation between the risk-taking behavior of the coal workers arid nine influencing factors，such as need of the workers，state of work，etc.，and various background various of the coal workers，and according to these variable, the probability on the risk-taking behavior of the coal workers was predicted.

（5）Because the difference on the degree of the coal workers taking risk，the intrinsic mental construction of the coal workers，such as Telic or Paratelic，.Conformist or Negativistic, Mastery or Sympathy, Autocentric or Allocentric, etc.，is difference.

（6）through research of testing and verifying，it is shown that the conclusion of this dissertation was reasonable，scientific，creativity and valuable in preventing accidents.

The reversal theory and constructive equation modelling being systematicly introduced firstly，and the risk homeostasis theory being supplemented and verified，and constructive contingency theory on the risk-taking behavior of the coal workers and the mathematical model on probability of predicting the coal human accidents were offered were great creative value in building and exploring theory.

There were great practical value on this study in predicting probability of the human accidents，predicting and evaluating the safety state of enterprise and the coal workers' behavior，training and electing the workers，perfecting safety supervisory laws and regulations，measures，and improving the enterprise's safety managemental performance, etc.