Institutional Repository, Institute of Psychology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
A closer look at the Russian roulette problem: A re-examination of the nonlinearity of the prospect theory's decision weight pi | |
Li, Li-Bo2; He, Shu-Hong3; Li, Shu1; Xu, Jie-Hong1; Rao, Li-Lin1 | |
第一作者 | Li, Li-Bo |
通讯作者邮箱 | lishu@psych.ac.cn |
摘要 | Utilizing the Russian roulette problem as an exemplar, Kahneman and Tversky (1979) developed a weighting function pi to explain that the Allais Paradox arises because people behave so as to maximize overall value rather than expected utility (EU). Following the way that "overweighting of small probabilities" originated from the Russian roulette problem, this research measured individuals' willingness to pay (WTP) as well as their happiness for a reduction of the probability of death, and examined whether the observed figures were compatible with the nonlinearity of the weighting function. Data analysis revealed that the nonlinear properties estimated by straight measures differed from those derived from preferential choices I D. Kahneman, A. Tversky, Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk, Econometrica 47 (1979) 263-291] and formulated by [A. Tversky, D. Kahneman, Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty, journal of Risk and Uncertainty 5 (1992) 297-323]. The controversies and questions to the proposed properties of the decision weight were discussed. An attempt was made to draw the research attention from which function was being maximized to whether people behave as if they were trying to maximize some generalized expectation.;Utilizing the Russian roulette problem as an exemplar, Kahneman and Tversky (1979) developed a weighting function pi to explain that the Allais Paradox arises because people behave so as to maximize overall value rather than expected utility (EU). Following the way that "overweighting of small probabilities" originated from the Russian roulette problem, this research measured individuals' willingness to pay (WTP) as well as their happiness for a reduction of the probability of death, and examined whether the observed figures were compatible with the nonlinearity of the weighting function. Data analysis revealed that the nonlinear properties estimated by straight measures differed from those derived from preferential choices I D. Kahneman, A. Tversky, Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk, Econometrica 47 (1979) 263-291] and formulated by [A. Tversky, D. Kahneman, Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty, journal of Risk and Uncertainty 5 (1992) 297-323]. The controversies and questions to the proposed properties of the decision weight were discussed. An attempt was made to draw the research attention from which function was being maximized to whether people behave as if they were trying to maximize some generalized expectation. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. |
关键词 | Russian roulette problem 1979 version of prospect theory 1992 version of prospect theory Decision weight pi Decision weight w |
学科领域 | 社会心理学 |
2009-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF APPROXIMATE REASONING |
ISSN | 0888-613X |
卷号 | 50期号:3页码:515-520 |
收录类别 | SCI ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000264713200010 |
WOS分区 | Q2 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://ir.psych.ac.cn/handle/311026/5115 |
专题 | 中国科学院心理研究所回溯数据库(1956-2010) |
通讯作者 | Li, Shu |
作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Psychol, Ctr Social & Econ Behav, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Univ New S Wales, Sch Math, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia 3.Yunnan Univ, Dept Math, Kunming, Peoples R China |
通讯作者单位 | 社会与工程心理学研究室 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Li, Li-Bo,He, Shu-Hong,Li, Shu,et al. A closer look at the Russian roulette problem: A re-examination of the nonlinearity of the prospect theory's decision weight pi[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF APPROXIMATE REASONING,2009,50(3):515-520. |
APA | Li, Li-Bo,He, Shu-Hong,Li, Shu,Xu, Jie-Hong,&Rao, Li-Lin.(2009).A closer look at the Russian roulette problem: A re-examination of the nonlinearity of the prospect theory's decision weight pi.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF APPROXIMATE REASONING,50(3),515-520. |
MLA | Li, Li-Bo,et al."A closer look at the Russian roulette problem: A re-examination of the nonlinearity of the prospect theory's decision weight pi".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF APPROXIMATE REASONING 50.3(2009):515-520. |
条目包含的文件 | ||||||
文件名称/大小 | 文献类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
Li-2009-A closer loo(185KB) | 期刊论文 | 作者原稿 | 开放获取 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 下载 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论