A closer look at the Russian roulette problem: A re-examination of the nonlinearity of the prospect theory's decision weight pi
Li, Li-Bo2; He, Shu-Hong3; Li, Shu1; Xu, Jie-Hong1; Rao, Li-Lin1; S. Li
2009-03-01
发表期刊INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF APPROXIMATE REASONING
ISSN0888-613X
文章类型Article
卷号50期号:3页码:515-520
摘要Utilizing the Russian roulette problem as an exemplar, Kahneman and Tversky (1979) developed a weighting function pi to explain that the Allais Paradox arises because people behave so as to maximize overall value rather than expected utility (EU). Following the way that "overweighting of small probabilities" originated from the Russian roulette problem, this research measured individuals' willingness to pay (WTP) as well as their happiness for a reduction of the probability of death, and examined whether the observed figures were compatible with the nonlinearity of the weighting function. Data analysis revealed that the nonlinear properties estimated by straight measures differed from those derived from preferential choices I D. Kahneman, A. Tversky, Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk, Econometrica 47 (1979) 263-291] and formulated by [A. Tversky, D. Kahneman, Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty, journal of Risk and Uncertainty 5 (1992) 297-323]. The controversies and questions to the proposed properties of the decision weight were discussed. An attempt was made to draw the research attention from which function was being maximized to whether people behave as if they were trying to maximize some generalized expectation.; Utilizing the Russian roulette problem as an exemplar, Kahneman and Tversky (1979) developed a weighting function pi to explain that the Allais Paradox arises because people behave so as to maximize overall value rather than expected utility (EU). Following the way that "overweighting of small probabilities" originated from the Russian roulette problem, this research measured individuals' willingness to pay (WTP) as well as their happiness for a reduction of the probability of death, and examined whether the observed figures were compatible with the nonlinearity of the weighting function. Data analysis revealed that the nonlinear properties estimated by straight measures differed from those derived from preferential choices I D. Kahneman, A. Tversky, Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk, Econometrica 47 (1979) 263-291] and formulated by [A. Tversky, D. Kahneman, Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty, journal of Risk and Uncertainty 5 (1992) 297-323]. The controversies and questions to the proposed properties of the decision weight were discussed. An attempt was made to draw the research attention from which function was being maximized to whether people behave as if they were trying to maximize some generalized expectation. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
关键词Russian roulette problem 1979 version of prospect theory 1992 version of prospect theory Decision weight pi Decision weight w
学科领域社会心理学
收录类别SCI ; SSCI
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000264713200010
引用统计
被引频次:5[WOS]   [WOS记录]     [WOS相关记录]
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://ir.psych.ac.cn/handle/311026/5115
专题中国科学院心理研究所回溯数据库(1956-2010)
通讯作者S. Li
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Psychol, Ctr Social & Econ Behav, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
2.Univ New S Wales, Sch Math, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
3.Yunnan Univ, Dept Math, Kunming, Peoples R China
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Li, Li-Bo,He, Shu-Hong,Li, Shu,et al. A closer look at the Russian roulette problem: A re-examination of the nonlinearity of the prospect theory's decision weight pi[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF APPROXIMATE REASONING,2009,50(3):515-520.
APA Li, Li-Bo,He, Shu-Hong,Li, Shu,Xu, Jie-Hong,Rao, Li-Lin,&S. Li.(2009).A closer look at the Russian roulette problem: A re-examination of the nonlinearity of the prospect theory's decision weight pi.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF APPROXIMATE REASONING,50(3),515-520.
MLA Li, Li-Bo,et al."A closer look at the Russian roulette problem: A re-examination of the nonlinearity of the prospect theory's decision weight pi".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF APPROXIMATE REASONING 50.3(2009):515-520.
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