Forecasting model of mass incidents in China——An explorative research based on suppport vector machine

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	Forecasting model of mass incidents in China——An explorative research based on suppport vector machine
	周佳树; 王二平; 陈毅文; 吴玄娜; Ma YJ; Tian YJ
	2009
会议名称	2009 International Conference on Business Intelligence and Financial Engineering
会议日期	2009
会议地点	Beijing, China
其他摘要	[Purpose] Mass incidents have emerged as a serious social problem concerning national security in China. So, it is necessary to construct a forecasting model to predict such public events. In this paper, Support Vector Machines are applied to the model. [Method] Based on the social surveys conducted in 119 counties of Shanxi, Gansu and Hubei provinces, 3 multi-class classification problems were proposed, and then 3 multiclass Support Vector Classification forecasting models were constructed. [Results] Preliminary experiments have proved that our method, compared with multiple cumulative logistic regression, should be more effective and accurate(enter method as well as the stepwise one). [Conclusion] It can be concluded from the results that irrationally behavioral intentions can be predicted more accurate than those rational ones. When the collective attitudes are applied to the forecast of the collective behavioral intentions, SVM method was approved to be the most effective approach. This paper represents an originally explorative research.
关键词	Mass incident Collective action Classification Support Vector Machine Forecasting Model
学科领域	社会心理学
文献类型	会议论文
条目标识符	http://ir.psych.ac.cn/handle/311026/8818
专题	中国科学院心理研究所回溯数据库(1956-2010)
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	周佳树,王二平,陈毅文,等. Forecasting model of mass incidents in China——An explorative research based on suppport vector machine[C],2009.

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