Formulating an emergency plan based on expectation-maximization is one thing, but applying it to a single case is another

	Formulating an emergency plan based on expectation-maximization is one thing, but applying it to a single case is another
	Sun, Hong-Yue 1,2; Rao, Li-Lin1,2 ; Zhou, Kun 3; Li, Shu1
	2014
发表期刊	JOURNAL OF RISK RESEARCH
ISSN	1366-9877
文章类型	Article
卷号	17 期号:7 页码:785-814
摘要	This research extends the exploration of single-play/multiple-play distinctions from monetary gambling paradigm to emergency management situation. We conducted three studies (two survey studies and one eye tracking study) to test whether an emergency plan we formulated in advance based on expectation-maximization would be likely to be applied in a single case. In the first two survey studies we found that the plan with the higher EV was more likely to be preferred when the plan was applied 100 times or to 100 areas than when the plan was applied only once or to only one area. We also found significant framing and reflection effects, both of which violated the invariance principle in the single-application condition, but not in the multiple-application condition. Furthermore, in the eye tracking study, we found distinctly different eye movement patterns in the single-application condition and the multiple-application condition. The eye movement patterns in the multiple-application condition are more consistent with the predictions deduced from expectation computation. The overall results suggest that a gap exists between the formulation and the implementation of an emergency plan. Formulating an emergency plan based on expectation-maximization is doable, but applying it to a single case may be more challenging.
关键词	Emergency Plan Expectation-maximization Single-application Multiple-application Eye Movement Patterns
收录类别	SSCI
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000339071000001
引用统计	被引频次：4[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.psych.ac.cn/handle/311026/13469
专题	中国科学院行为科学重点实验室
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Psychol, Key Lab Behav Sci, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Civil Aviat Univ China, Coll Safety Sci & Engn, Tianjin, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sun, Hong-Yue,Rao, Li-Lin,Zhou, Kun,et al. Formulating an emergency plan based on expectation-maximization is one thing, but applying it to a single case is another[J]. JOURNAL OF RISK RESEARCH,2014,17(7):785-814.
APA	Sun, Hong-Yue,Rao, Li-Lin,Zhou, Kun,&Li, Shu.(2014).Formulating an emergency plan based on expectation-maximization is one thing, but applying it to a single case is another.JOURNAL OF RISK RESEARCH,17(7),785-814.
MLA	Sun, Hong-Yue,et al."Formulating an emergency plan based on expectation-maximization is one thing, but applying it to a single case is another".JOURNAL OF RISK RESEARCH 17.7(2014):785-814.

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