Institutional Repository of Key Laboratory of Behavioral Science, CAS
| Formulating an emergency plan based on expectation-maximization is one thing, but applying it to a single case is another | |
Sun, Hong-Yue1,2 ; Rao, Li-Lin1,2; Zhou, Kun3; Li, Shu1
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| 2014 | |
| Source Publication | JOURNAL OF RISK RESEARCH
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| ISSN | 1366-9877 |
| Subtype | Article |
| Volume | 17Issue:7Pages:785-814 |
| Abstract | This research extends the exploration of single-play/multiple-play distinctions from monetary gambling paradigm to emergency management situation. We conducted three studies (two survey studies and one eye tracking study) to test whether an emergency plan we formulated in advance based on expectation-maximization would be likely to be applied in a single case. In the first two survey studies we found that the plan with the higher EV was more likely to be preferred when the plan was applied 100 times or to 100 areas than when the plan was applied only once or to only one area. We also found significant framing and reflection effects, both of which violated the invariance principle in the single-application condition, but not in the multiple-application condition. Furthermore, in the eye tracking study, we found distinctly different eye movement patterns in the single-application condition and the multiple-application condition. The eye movement patterns in the multiple-application condition are more consistent with the predictions deduced from expectation computation. The overall results suggest that a gap exists between the formulation and the implementation of an emergency plan. Formulating an emergency plan based on expectation-maximization is doable, but applying it to a single case may be more challenging. |
| Keyword | Emergency Plan Expectation-maximization Single-application Multiple-application Eye Movement Patterns |
| Indexed By | SSCI |
| Language | 英语 |
| WOS ID | WOS:000339071000001 |
| Citation statistics | |
| Document Type | 期刊论文 |
| Identifier | http://ir.psych.ac.cn/handle/311026/13469 |
| Collection | 中国科学院行为科学重点实验室 |
| Affiliation | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Psychol, Key Lab Behav Sci, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Civil Aviat Univ China, Coll Safety Sci & Engn, Tianjin, Peoples R China |
| Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Sun, Hong-Yue,Rao, Li-Lin,Zhou, Kun,et al. Formulating an emergency plan based on expectation-maximization is one thing, but applying it to a single case is another[J]. JOURNAL OF RISK RESEARCH,2014,17(7):785-814. |
| APA | Sun, Hong-Yue,Rao, Li-Lin,Zhou, Kun,&Li, Shu.(2014).Formulating an emergency plan based on expectation-maximization is one thing, but applying it to a single case is another.JOURNAL OF RISK RESEARCH,17(7),785-814. |
| MLA | Sun, Hong-Yue,et al."Formulating an emergency plan based on expectation-maximization is one thing, but applying it to a single case is another".JOURNAL OF RISK RESEARCH 17.7(2014):785-814. |
| Files in This Item: | ||||||
| File Name/Size | DocType | Version | Access | License | ||
| Formulating an emerg（578KB） | 期刊论文 | 作者接受稿 | 暂不开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | Application Full Text | |
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