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Formulating an emergency plan based on expectation-maximization is one thing, but applying it to a single case is another
Sun, Hong-Yue1,2; Rao, Li-Lin1,2; Zhou, Kun3; Li, Shu1
2014
Source PublicationJOURNAL OF RISK RESEARCH
ISSN1366-9877
SubtypeArticle
Volume17Issue:7Pages:785-814
AbstractThis research extends the exploration of single-play/multiple-play distinctions from monetary gambling paradigm to emergency management situation. We conducted three studies (two survey studies and one eye tracking study) to test whether an emergency plan we formulated in advance based on expectation-maximization would be likely to be applied in a single case. In the first two survey studies we found that the plan with the higher EV was more likely to be preferred when the plan was applied 100 times or to 100 areas than when the plan was applied only once or to only one area. We also found significant framing and reflection effects, both of which violated the invariance principle in the single-application condition, but not in the multiple-application condition. Furthermore, in the eye tracking study, we found distinctly different eye movement patterns in the single-application condition and the multiple-application condition. The eye movement patterns in the multiple-application condition are more consistent with the predictions deduced from expectation computation. The overall results suggest that a gap exists between the formulation and the implementation of an emergency plan. Formulating an emergency plan based on expectation-maximization is doable, but applying it to a single case may be more challenging.
KeywordEmergency Plan Expectation-maximization Single-application Multiple-application Eye Movement Patterns
Indexed BySSCI
Language英语
WOS IDWOS:000339071000001
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.psych.ac.cn/handle/311026/13469
Collection中国科学院行为科学重点实验室
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Psychol, Key Lab Behav Sci, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
3.Civil Aviat Univ China, Coll Safety Sci & Engn, Tianjin, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Sun, Hong-Yue,Rao, Li-Lin,Zhou, Kun,et al. Formulating an emergency plan based on expectation-maximization is one thing, but applying it to a single case is another[J]. JOURNAL OF RISK RESEARCH,2014,17(7):785-814.
APA Sun, Hong-Yue,Rao, Li-Lin,Zhou, Kun,&Li, Shu.(2014).Formulating an emergency plan based on expectation-maximization is one thing, but applying it to a single case is another.JOURNAL OF RISK RESEARCH,17(7),785-814.
MLA Sun, Hong-Yue,et al."Formulating an emergency plan based on expectation-maximization is one thing, but applying it to a single case is another".JOURNAL OF RISK RESEARCH 17.7(2014):785-814.
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