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The Perception of Probability
Gallistel, C. R.1; Krishan, Monika2,3; Liu, Ye1,4; Miller, Reilly5,6; Latham, Peter E.5
AbstractWe present a computational model to explain the results from experiments in which subjects estimate the hidden probability parameter of a stepwise nonstationary Bernoulli process outcome by outcome. The model captures the following results qualitatively and quantitatively, with only 2 free parameters: (a) Subjects do not update their estimate after each outcome; they step from one estimate to another at irregular intervals. (b) The joint distribution of step widths and heights cannot be explained on the assumption that a threshold amount of change must be exceeded in order for them to indicate a change in their perception. (c) The mapping of observed probability to the median perceived probability is the identity function over the full range of probabilities. (d) Precision (how close estimates are to the best possible estimate) is good and constant over the full range. (e) Subjects quickly detect substantial changes in the hidden probability parameter. (f) The perceived probability sometimes changes dramatically from one observation to the next. (g) Subjects sometimes have second thoughts about a previous change perception, after observing further outcomes. (h) The frequency with which they perceive changes moves in the direction of the true frequency over sessions. (Explaining this finding requires 2 additional parametric assumptions.) The model treats the perception of the current probability as a by-product of the construction of a compact encoding of the experienced sequence in terms of its change points. It illustrates the why and the how of intermittent Bayesian belief updating and retrospective revision in simple perception. It suggests a reinterpretation of findings in the recent literature on the neurobiology of decision making.
Keywordchange-point representation Bayesian model comparison simplicity-adequacy trade-off retrospective revision compact coding
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WOS IDWOS:000331297700004
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Document Type期刊论文
Affiliation1.Rutgers State Univ, Rutgers Ctr Cognit Sci, Piscataway, NJ 08855 USA
2.Rutgers State Univ, Dept Psychol, Piscataway, NJ 08855 USA
3.India Ascens, Bangalore, Karnataka, India
4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Psychol, State Key Lab Brain & Cognit Sci, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
5.UCL, Gatsby Computat Neurosci Unit, London, England
6.Princeton Univ, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Gallistel, C. R.,Krishan, Monika,Liu, Ye,et al. The Perception of Probability[J]. PSYCHOLOGICAL REVIEW,2014,121(1):96-123.
APA Gallistel, C. R.,Krishan, Monika,Liu, Ye,Miller, Reilly,&Latham, Peter E..(2014).The Perception of Probability.PSYCHOLOGICAL REVIEW,121(1),96-123.
MLA Gallistel, C. R.,et al."The Perception of Probability".PSYCHOLOGICAL REVIEW 121.1(2014):96-123.
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