PSYCH OpenIR  > 中国科学院行为科学重点实验室
“20%的概率获得蛋糕”=“获得蛋糕的20%”?检验风险决策的期望法则假设
Alternative Title“20% probability to gain a cake” = “gain 20% of the cake”?Testing the expectation rule of risky decision making
梁竹苑1; 徐丽娟2; 饶俪琳1; 蒋田仔2; 李纾1
2012
Source Publication科学通报
Correspondent Emaillishu@psych.ac.cn
ISSN0023-074X
Subtype期刊论文
Volume57Issue:35Pages:3421-3433
Contribution Rank1
Abstract风险决策主流理论以期望法则的计算为核心假设,认为决策者需要进行"加权求和"的期望值计算过程.为检验这一基本假设,本研究采用相同的视觉材料设计了两类任务:将"%"看成"概率"的概率决策任务(风险决策)和将"%"看成"比例"的比例决策任务(计算决策).两任务均要求被试选择自己偏好的选项.考虑到被试在比例决策任务中须执行"加权求和"的期望值计算,方能使其收益最大化,我们推测,若被试在概率决策任务中也是根据"加权求和"规则做出决策,我们应当会发现影响"期望值计算"的诸因素(如计算难度、算术能力)同时影响两类任务.结果发现:计算难度和算术能力只影响比例决策任务绩效(其反应时更长,基于期望值选择的比例更高),但不影响概率决策任务绩效.相反,与"期望值计算"无关的"概率能力"和"感觉寻求人格"只影响概率决策任务绩效,但不影响比例决策任务绩效.该结果表明,概率能力和人格对风险决策的行为绩效起调节作用,人们在风险决策中可能并未按照期望法则的精确计算方式做出决策.期望法则家族理论将"加权求和"结果作为人类风险偏好的单一指数,或许是一种人为创造的错误指数. 
Other AbstractMainstream theories of risky decision making assume that decision maker employs the expectation rule - computing expected value or utilities by summing all the weighted risky outcomes. To test this general hypothesis, the present research developed two tasks by using visually identical experimental materials: Probabilistic Decision (PROB) task and Proportional Decision (PROP) task, in which the same sign “%” denotes probability or proportion respectively. Participants were asked to choose the option they preferred in both tasks. Given that choosing the option with greatest value in PROP tasks requires an expectation computation, we speculated that, if participants do follow the same rule to make a risky decision in PROB tasks, the factors that affect expected value or utility computation, such as computational difficulty and arithmetic ability, should affect their performance in both tasks. We found that the resulting responses to the two tasks did not consistently fit the prediction of the expectation rule: participants’ response times were shorter in PROB task than in PROP tasks, and proportions of their expected value (EV)-based choices were lower in PROB task than in PROP tasks. We also found that participants’ task performances in the two tasks were moderated by disparate variables, indicating that the underlying mechanisms were different in these two tasks. In particular, the arithmetic ability moderates performance of PROP tasks, but not of PROB tasks, whereas, the numeracy ability and sensation-seeking trait moderates performance of PROB tasks, but not of PROP tasks. These results suggested that individuals might not make risk decisions by performing an expectation computation as predicted by the expectation rule, and that using an EV-based index to prescribe human risky preferences appears to be an artificial or false index of risk preference.
Keyword风险决策 期望法则 比例决策任务 概率决策任务 算术 概率能力 人格
Subject Area认知心理学
Indexed ByCSCD
Language中文
CSCD IDCSCD:4718692
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.psych.ac.cn/handle/311026/14310
Collection中国科学院行为科学重点实验室
Corresponding Author李纾
Affiliation1.中国科学院心理研究所行为科学重点实验室
2.中国科学院自动化研究所模式识别国家重点实验室
First Author AffilicationInstitute of Psychology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Corresponding Author AffilicationInstitute of Psychology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
梁竹苑,徐丽娟,饶俪琳,等. “20%的概率获得蛋糕”=“获得蛋糕的20%”?检验风险决策的期望法则假设[J]. 科学通报,2012,57(35):3421-3433.
APA 梁竹苑,徐丽娟,饶俪琳,蒋田仔,&李纾.(2012).“20%的概率获得蛋糕”=“获得蛋糕的20%”?检验风险决策的期望法则假设.科学通报,57(35),3421-3433.
MLA 梁竹苑,et al."“20%的概率获得蛋糕”=“获得蛋糕的20%”?检验风险决策的期望法则假设".科学通报 57.35(2012):3421-3433.
Files in This Item:
File Name/Size DocType Version Access License
_20_的概率获得蛋糕_获得蛋糕_省略_(1389KB) 限制开放CC BY-NC-SAView Application Full Text
Related Services
Recommend this item
Bookmark
Usage statistics
Export to Endnote
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[梁竹苑]'s Articles
[徐丽娟]'s Articles
[饶俪琳]'s Articles
Baidu academic
Similar articles in Baidu academic
[梁竹苑]'s Articles
[徐丽娟]'s Articles
[饶俪琳]'s Articles
Bing Scholar
Similar articles in Bing Scholar
[梁竹苑]'s Articles
[徐丽娟]'s Articles
[饶俪琳]'s Articles
Terms of Use
No data!
Social Bookmark/Share
File name: _20_的概率获得蛋糕_获得蛋糕_省略_20_检验风险决策的期望法则假设_梁竹苑[1].pdf
Format: Adobe PDF
This file does not support browsing at this time
All comments (0)
No comment.
 

Items in the repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.