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Alternative Title“20% probability to gain a cake” = “gain 20% of the cake”?Testing the expectation rule of risky decision making
梁竹苑1; 徐丽娟2; 饶俪琳1; 蒋田仔2; 李纾1
Source Publication科学通报
Contribution Rank1
Other AbstractMainstream theories of risky decision making assume that decision maker employs the expectation rule - computing expected value or utilities by summing all the weighted risky outcomes. To test this general hypothesis, the present research developed two tasks by using visually identical experimental materials: Probabilistic Decision (PROB) task and Proportional Decision (PROP) task, in which the same sign “%” denotes probability or proportion respectively. Participants were asked to choose the option they preferred in both tasks. Given that choosing the option with greatest value in PROP tasks requires an expectation computation, we speculated that, if participants do follow the same rule to make a risky decision in PROB tasks, the factors that affect expected value or utility computation, such as computational difficulty and arithmetic ability, should affect their performance in both tasks. We found that the resulting responses to the two tasks did not consistently fit the prediction of the expectation rule: participants’ response times were shorter in PROB task than in PROP tasks, and proportions of their expected value (EV)-based choices were lower in PROB task than in PROP tasks. We also found that participants’ task performances in the two tasks were moderated by disparate variables, indicating that the underlying mechanisms were different in these two tasks. In particular, the arithmetic ability moderates performance of PROP tasks, but not of PROB tasks, whereas, the numeracy ability and sensation-seeking trait moderates performance of PROB tasks, but not of PROP tasks. These results suggested that individuals might not make risk decisions by performing an expectation computation as predicted by the expectation rule, and that using an EV-based index to prescribe human risky preferences appears to be an artificial or false index of risk preference.
Keyword风险决策 期望法则 比例决策任务 概率决策任务 算术 概率能力 人格
Subject Area认知心理学
Indexed ByCSCD
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Corresponding Author李纾
First Author AffilicationInstitute of Psychology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Corresponding Author AffilicationInstitute of Psychology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
梁竹苑,徐丽娟,饶俪琳,等. “20%的概率获得蛋糕”=“获得蛋糕的20%”?检验风险决策的期望法则假设[J]. 科学通报,2012,57(35):3421-3433.
APA 梁竹苑,徐丽娟,饶俪琳,蒋田仔,&李纾.(2012).“20%的概率获得蛋糕”=“获得蛋糕的20%”?检验风险决策的期望法则假设.科学通报,57(35),3421-3433.
MLA 梁竹苑,et al."“20%的概率获得蛋糕”=“获得蛋糕的20%”?检验风险决策的期望法则假设".科学通报 57.35(2012):3421-3433.
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