负折扣现象产生的心理机制研究

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	负折扣现象产生的心理机制研究
其他题名	A Study of Psychological Mechanisms underlying Negative Discounting
	孙红月
	2014-05
摘要	标准的经济学理论假定，人们进行跨期决策时存在一个时间折扣过程。所谓时间折扣，指人们会根据将来获益或损失的延迟时间对其效用进行折扣，折扣后的效用小于原来的效用。按照时间折扣假定，同样大小的损失(痛苦)如果发生在将来，经过折扣之后其效用小于现在发生损失(痛苦)的效用，因此人们应该选择将来承受损失(痛苦)而不是现在承受损失(痛苦)，即出现正折扣现象。然而研究发现，当面临现在的损失(痛苦)和将来的损失(痛苦)时，人们往往更愿意选择现在承受损失(痛苦)，称为负折扣现象。本文尝试从修改决策表征空间的角度解释负折扣现象。我们认为，对于涉及负性事件的跨期决策，人们不仅在给定的价值和时间维度上进行决策，还会主动生成额外的维度影响决策。具体表现为，当面对一个将来发生的负性事件时，人们会主动生成一个额外的维度，这个维度被表征为——对等待负性事件的过程产生的预期负性体验。这种预期负性体验包含两种成分。一种成分是对负性事件本身所产生的预期情绪因素，如紧张、焦虑、害怕、恐惧等。另一种成分是对等待过程所产生的负性感受，即担心等待负性事件的过程会造成注意资源的损耗，感到分心、牵挂等，从而导致其他任务的低效率。由于预期负性体验的存在，使将来发生的负性事件变得更加让人不愉快，从而导致人们偏爱现在发生的负性事件，出现负折扣现象。本文通过 3 个研究逐步揭示了负折扣现象产生的心理机制。研究 1 的目的是考察负折扣现象的普遍性。结果发现，(1)对于涉及失去金钱、遭受疼痛刺激、社会拒斥等各种负性事件的跨期决策，多数被试选择负性事件现在发生而不是将来发生，即出现负折扣现象； (2)对被试在损失金钱情境下的折扣率进行测量后发现，35.6%的被试的折扣率为负值，即出现负折扣现象。研究 2 的目的是考察预期负性体验是否存在。结果发现，(1)当人们面对将来发生的负性事件时，确实会对等待的过程产生预期负性体验；(2)在真实的等待一个负性事件的过程中，人们也体验到这种负性体验。研究3的目的是探讨预期负性体验对负折扣现象的作用机制。结果发现，(1)负性刺激的大小会影响负折扣现象的产生，预期负性体验在其中起中介作用；(2)决策角色会影响负折扣现象的产生，预期负性体验在其中起中介作用；(3)操纵预期负性体验的强弱，影响负折扣现象的产生。本文突破主流的折扣家族模型的禁锢，从修改决策表征空间的角度入手，探索并验证了负折扣现象产生的心理机制，丰富了跨期决策的理论研究，为进一步探索损失领域的跨期决策机制奠定了基础。
其他摘要	Standard economic theory assumes that a temporal discounting process occurs when people choose between outcomes occurring at different times in an intertemporal choice. Temporal discounting refers to people’s tendency to discount the value of delayed outcomes by the amount of time one must wait for them, which leads to decreases in the subjective value of these future outcomes. According to the temporal discounting process, the same absolute amounts of loss (pain) are not psychologically equivalent. The subjective value of loss (pain) occurred in the future is less than that of loss (pain) occurred immediately. Therefore people should prefer to lose or experience unpleasant experiences later rather than sooner, which shows a positive discounting. However, immediate loss and negative events are generally preferred to delayed loss and delayed negative events, which is called “negative discounting” phenomenon. In this paper, we tried to understand the negative discounting phenomenon by taking the perspective of modifying a representation space. The negative discounting phenomenon is understandable if the value of the delayed outcome is assigned not only to the offered dimensions (or attributes) but also to some unoffered dimensions, which we termed the ―anticipated negative experience‖ derived from the waiting process. We speculate that the proposed ―anticipated negative experience‖ accompanying the delayed negative events have two elements. One is negative anticipated emotions towards the delayed negative events per se, such as anxiety, worry and so on. The other is a contingent reservation towards the waiting per se—concern that waiting would consume the attention resources and distract one from focusing on other activities. The anticipated negative experience reflects a negative anticipation of the future from which a negative utility is derived to make the delayed option more aversive, a negative discounting phenomenon is thus detected. This study empirically investigated the mechanism underlying the phenomenon of negative discounting. Study 1 aimed to explore the pervasiveness of negative discounting phenomenon. The results revealed that (1) the majority of participants which a negative utility is derived to make the delayed option more aversive, a negative discounting phenomenon is thus detected. This study empirically investigated the mechanism underlying the phenomenon of negative discounting. Study 1 aimed to explore the pervasiveness of negative discounting phenomenon. The results revealed that (1) the majority of participants moderated by the anticipated negative experience; (2) the effect of decision role on the negative discounting behavior was moderated by the anticipated negative experience; (3) the negative discounting behavior could be reduced by manipulating the intensity of the anticipated negative experience. Breaching the imprisonment of the mainstream discounted utility model, the present paper explored the psychological mechanism of negative discounting phenomenon from the perspective of modifying a representation space. This paper enriched the theoretical researches of intertemporal choice and established the foundation for further exploring the mechanism of intertemporal choice in loss domain.
学科领域	应用心理学
关键词	跨期决策负性事件负折扣现象预期负性体验
学位类型	博士
语种	中文
学位专业	心理学
学位授予单位	中国科学院研究生院
学位授予地点	北京
文献类型	学位论文
条目标识符	http://ir.psych.ac.cn/handle/311026/19659
专题	社会与工程心理学研究室
作者单位	中国科学院心理研究所
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	孙红月. 负折扣现象产生的心理机制研究[D]. 北京. 中国科学院研究生院,2014.

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