|Alternative Title||Diurnal and Seasonal Rhythm of Future Orientation: Based on Analyses of Microblog Text|
|Thesis Advisor||李纾 ; 郑蕊|
|Place of Conferral||北京|
|Keyword||未来取向 社交媒体 未昼夜节律 季节节律 雾霾|
研究三考察了特殊环境事件（雾霾）对未来取向中思考未来和计划行为的影响。研究结果表明：空气质量污染严重时（PM2.5 指数大于150）未来词的比例高于空气质量优良时（PM2.5 指数小于35），但雾霾对计划词的比例没有显著影响。为了进一步验证该结果，我们采用问卷调查法，测量了211 个被试在雾霾天和非雾霾天的未来取向和计划行为倾向，其结果表明个体在雾霾天更倾向于思考未来，更愿意制定更长远的学习计划。
|Other Abstract||“Make your whole year’s plans in spring and your day’s plan early in the morning.” is an old Chinese proverb. Thinking about future and planning in advance is the fundamental characteristic of human being and such future orientation is important for human’s survival and development as well as the financial decision, health and environmental protection. In modern industrial society, people are separated from the change of temperature and light, then whether the rhythm of thinking about future and making plans has changed is still unknown. In the current research, integrating text mining and traditional questionnaire research, computerized text analysis of a dataset encompassing messages released by millions of users on Sina micro-blog was conducted to measure the proportion of words or phrases referring to future and planning, in order to measure the diurnal and seasonal rhythm of future orientation and the influencing factors.|
Study 1 focused on the cognitive propensity of future orientation. We created the lexicon of future and calculated the proportion of words referring to future in all words to explore the diurnal and seasonal rhythm of individual’s thinking about future.Meanwhile, we created the lexicon and calculated the proportion of words referring to past and now in all words, which provided a useful contrast for future orientation. The results indicated that: 1) the shapes of the future orientation rhythm were nearly identical across seven days of the week. People think more about future in night than in the daytime. In a year, people were tend to think more about future in winter. 2) The proportion of future orientation was lowest, followed by past orientation, and present orientation was highest, which indicated that people tend to “live in the present” in current society. 3) The diurnal change of future orientation is mainly determined by future near to us.
Study 2 explored the rhythm of behavioral propensity in future orientation. We created a lexicon on planning and estimate the proportion of words referring to planning in all words to explore the diurnal and seasonal rhythm of making plans. The result showed that: 1) The shapes of the future orientation rhythm were nearly identical across seven days of the week for planning, and individuals make plan in accordance to the rhythm in Chinese ancient proverb “Make your day’s plan early in the morning”. 2) In a year, people made plans in winter rather than in spring.
Study 3 investigated the influence of haze (PM2.5 index) on future orientation. The result found that: Compared with the days when air quality is excellent (PM2.5 index < 35μg/m3), when the air is heavily populated (PM2.5 index > 150μg/m3), the proportion of future orientation is higher, while the proportion of planning words is not influenced by air quality. To further confirm the result, we measured the future orientation and planning tendency in hazy and fine days. The result shows that individuals tend to be more future-oriented and willing to make longer study plan in hazy days.
In summary, the current study represents the diurnal and seasonal rhythm of individual’s thinking about future and making plans. People tend to think more about future in night within a day, while they making more plans early in the morning as the proverb describe. Moreover, people tend to think more about future and make more plans in winter, which disagree with the rhythm describe in the proverb. Understanding the rhythm is important for changing people’s attitude and behavior towards future, and furthermore providing suggestion for policy release and message pushing, which would promote human well being, environmental protection and sustainable future-oriented behavior.
|宣艳华. 未来取向的昼夜、季节节律：基于微博数据的研究[D]. 北京. 中国科学院研究生院,2015.|
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