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未来取向的昼夜、季节节律:基于微博数据的研究
其他题名Diurnal and Seasonal Rhythm of Future Orientation: Based on Analyses of Microblog Text
宣艳华
学位类型硕士
导师李纾 ; 郑蕊
2015-05
学位授予单位中国科学院研究生院
学位授予地点北京
学位专业心理学
关键词未来取向 社交媒体 未昼夜节律 季节节律 雾霾
摘要“一日之计在于晨,一年之计在于春”,考虑未来、预先计划的能力是人类思维的基本特点,这种未来取向对于人类的生存发展以及个体的经济决策、健康和环保行为等领域具有重要的意义。现代工业社会将人们与温度、光周期等昼夜和季节变化隔离开来,那么有关未来倾向的昼夜季节节律变化会依然遵循农耕文明时代的规律,还是随着工业化的发展而发生改变?本研究将文本挖掘技术与传统问卷调查法相结合,对微博用户发布的状态文本进行基于关键词的文本分析,测量了文本中提到未来、计划词的比例,以探索昼夜、季节节律对未来取向的影响及其影响因素。
研究一针对未来取向中思考未来的部分,通过未来词表的构建和微博内容中未来词的比例检索,探究个体思考未来的昼夜和季节节律,并且同时进行了过去、现在两类词的词表构建和比例检索,为思考未来的节律提供对照。研究结果表明:1)未来词比例的变化在一周七天基本上遵循一个相似的模式,即人们更倾向于在晚上思考未来,而在一年中,人们更倾向于在冬季思考未来;2)微博文本中未来词的比例最低,其次是过去词,现在词比例最高,说明在当今社会个体更倾向于“活在当下”。3)思考未来的昼夜节律变化是由思考较近未来所决定的。研究二针对未来取向中计划未来部分,通过计划词表的构建和微博文本中计划词的比例研究,探索个体做计划的昼夜和季节节律。研究结果表明:1)个体计划词的比例变化在一周七天基本上遵循一个相似的模式,即人们更倾向于在早上做计划;2)在一年中,人们更倾向于在冬天进行计划。
研究三考察了特殊环境事件(雾霾)对未来取向中思考未来和计划行为的影响。研究结果表明:空气质量污染严重时(PM2.5 指数大于150)未来词的比例高于空气质量优良时(PM2.5 指数小于35),但雾霾对计划词的比例没有显著影响。为了进一步验证该结果,我们采用问卷调查法,测量了211 个被试在雾霾天和非雾霾天的未来取向和计划行为倾向,其结果表明个体在雾霾天更倾向于思考未来,更愿意制定更长远的学习计划。
综上所述,个体思考未来、进行计划存在一定的昼夜和季节节律变化。一天之内,个体在晚上更多地思考未来,但做计划的节律仍然遵循”一日之计在于晨”;一年之内,个体更倾向于在冬天思考未来、进行计划,不再遵循”一年之计在于春”的规律。该研究有助于增强人们对未来取向波动规律的了解,对改变个体关于未来的态度及行为模式具有重要意义,可以进而为指向未来的政策发布和信息推送提供建议,促进人们采取更多的健康、环保、绿色可持续行为
其他摘要“Make your whole year’s plans in spring and your day’s plan early in the morning.” is an old Chinese proverb. Thinking about future and planning in advance is the fundamental characteristic of human being and such future orientation is important for human’s survival and development as well as the financial decision, health and environmental protection. In modern industrial society, people are separated from the change of temperature and light, then whether the rhythm of thinking about future and making plans has changed is still unknown. In the current research, integrating text mining and traditional questionnaire research, computerized text analysis of a dataset encompassing messages released by millions of users on Sina micro-blog was conducted to measure the proportion of words or phrases referring to future and planning, in order to measure the diurnal and seasonal rhythm of future orientation and the influencing factors.
Study 1 focused on the cognitive propensity of future orientation. We created the lexicon of future and calculated the proportion of words referring to future in all words to explore the diurnal and seasonal rhythm of individual’s thinking about future.Meanwhile, we created the lexicon and calculated the proportion of words referring to past and now in all words, which provided a useful contrast for future orientation. The results indicated that: 1) the shapes of the future orientation rhythm were nearly identical across seven days of the week. People think more about future in night than in the daytime. In a year, people were tend to think more about future in winter. 2) The proportion of future orientation was lowest, followed by past orientation, and present orientation was highest, which indicated that people tend to “live in the present” in current society. 3) The diurnal change of future orientation is mainly determined by future near to us.
Study 2 explored the rhythm of behavioral propensity in future orientation. We created a lexicon on planning and estimate the proportion of words referring to planning in all words to explore the diurnal and seasonal rhythm of making plans. The result showed that: 1) The shapes of the future orientation rhythm were nearly identical across seven days of the week for planning, and individuals make plan in accordance to the rhythm in Chinese ancient proverb “Make your day’s plan early in the morning”. 2) In a year, people made plans in winter rather than in spring.
Study 3 investigated the influence of haze (PM2.5 index) on future orientation. The result found that: Compared with the days when air quality is excellent (PM2.5 index < 35μg/m3), when the air is heavily populated (PM2.5 index > 150μg/m3), the proportion of future orientation is higher, while the proportion of planning words is not influenced by air quality. To further confirm the result, we measured the future orientation and planning tendency in hazy and fine days. The result shows that individuals tend to be more future-oriented and willing to make longer study plan in hazy days.
In summary, the current study represents the diurnal and seasonal rhythm of individual’s thinking about future and making plans. People tend to think more about future in night within a day, while they making more plans early in the morning as the proverb describe. Moreover, people tend to think more about future and make more plans in winter, which disagree with the rhythm describe in the proverb. Understanding the rhythm is important for changing people’s attitude and behavior towards future, and furthermore providing suggestion for policy release and message pushing, which would promote human well being, environmental protection and sustainable future-oriented behavior.
学科领域应用心理学
语种中文
文献类型学位论文
条目标识符http://ir.psych.ac.cn/handle/311026/19937
专题社会与工程心理学研究室
作者单位中国科学院心理研究所
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
宣艳华. 未来取向的昼夜、季节节律:基于微博数据的研究[D]. 北京. 中国科学院研究生院,2015.
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