|Alternative Title||Overconfidence and Performance: Why Overconfidence Is So Pervasive In Self-Judgments?|
|Place of Conferral||北京|
|Keyword||过分自信 绩效 过分自信的普遍性 进化|
|Other Abstract||One of the most robust finding in the judgment and decision-making literature is overconfidence. People are typically overconfident. They often overestimated actual ability, performance, level of control, or chance of success of themselves. However, as a decision bias, overconfidence has often been blamed for high-profile disasters. It was even recognized that no problem in judgment and decision making is more potentially catastrophic than overconfidence. One objection to this argument is that evolutionary pressures would have rendered overconfidence extinct if it was such a maladaptive and damaging behavior in the real world. So it remains a puzzle why such a false belief was so pervasive in a population of competing accurate beliefs. Combining the unclear conclusion about the effect of overconfidence on performance, it was hoped that the present research which aimed to explore the effect of overconfidence on performance could provide evidence on this point.|
As a pilot study, study 1 tested three methods of manipulating overconfidence-“consider the opposite” strategy, feedback and event priming. The findings indicated that: 1) “consider the opposite” strategy could not reduce overconfidence; 2) feedback could significantly reduce the general knowledge overconfidence; 3) there was no significant difference in neither general knowledge overconfidence, nor peer comparison overconfidence after the participants wrote down their own successful and failing events; participants’ general knowledge overconfidence, after they wrote down someone’s successful event, is significant higher than those who wrote down someone’s failing event.
Study 2 and study 3 are designed to explore the relationship between overconfidence and the current performance:
Study 2 indicated that overconfidence actually maximizes individual resources during competing. Furthermore, we found that the effects of overconfidence on the overall benefits were mediated by peer-rated competence.
Study 3 found greater overconfidence led to more persistent efforts to find solutions for very difficult mathematics reasoning items and the experimental manipulation established the causal priority of overconfidence. The effect could be explained by the self-rated competence.
Study 4 is designed to explore whether overconfidence facilitates subsequent performance. We found that most of the participants exaggerated their scores and the exaggeration led to the following affective costs (dissatisfaction). Moreover, overconfidence facilitates the subsequent performance and the effect was mediated by the amount of dissatisfaction.
Across these studies we found consistent supporting evidence for our primary hypothesis that overconfidence helps individuals increase performance. These findings make important contributions to the literature on overconfidence and speak to the pervasiveness of overconfidence. The fact that there are performance benefits of overconfidence to overconfident populations may be one of the reasons that why overconfidence was so pervasive in self-judgment.
|毕研玲. 过分自信与绩效的关系：过分自信为何如此普遍？[D]. 北京. 中国科学院研究生院,2011.|
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