PSYCH OpenIR  > 社会与工程心理学研究室
Alternative TitleTime unpacking effect and its impact on intertemporal decision making
刘扬1,2; 孙彦1
First Author刘扬
Source Publication心理学报
Contribution Rank1


Other Abstract

Time perception/judgment is relevant to everyone and is an integral part of decision making, because any meaningful choices are embedded in a temporal context. The unpacking effect(Tversky Koehler, 1994) in probability judgment refers to a phenomenon where "unpacking" an event could increase the subjectiveprobability judgment of the event. Given the similarity of time and probability in intertemporal and risky decision making and based on the results of plan fallacy research, we conject that the unpacking effect may also be detected in time perception/judgment. Unlike previous research that focused on the unpacking manipulation of some events, we only used pure manipulation on a time interval. We named this phenomenon the time unpacking effect, where a time interval is presented in an unpacked rather than compact way, thus lengthening subjective time perception. In this research, two studies explored the time unpacking effect in judgment and intertemporal decision making, and the impact the effect has on intertemporal decision making.Study 1 tested this effect in temporal judgment of whether a given time is sufficient to complete a task.Hypothesis 1a states that people in the unpacking condition compared with those in the packed condition will have higher scores, meaning they will perceive the time period as longer. Based on previous research, we formulated hypothesis 1b stating that task difficulty will affect the time unpacking effect. The experiment used a between-subjects design, where 124 participants were randomly assigned to a packed or unpacked condition and were presented with two scenarios within which tasks of varying difficulty were presented and asked to finish the corresponding computerized questionnaires. As a control factor we measured the participants' degree of busyness during the specified time periods. A mixed design MANOVA revealed that the interaction of condition-by-difficulty degree was significant, F(1, 120) = 5.14, p〈0.05. Furthermore, in the second scenario,which had a lower degree of difficulty, the unpacking manipulation significantly influenced the participants' time judgment(t(122) =-2.70, p〈0.01), while in the first scenario, the effect was not significant(t(122) =-0.77, p〈0.05). These results supported hypotheses 1a and 1b.Study 2 tested the time unpacking effect and explored its influence on intertemporal decision making.Hypothesis 2a states that participants in the unpacking condition perceive time delay as longer in the larger but later(LL) option of intertemporal choice, and thus prefer the smaller but sooner(SS) option compared with participants in the packed condition. Hypothesis 2b states that time perception of delay in the LL option mediates the effect of unpacking manipulation on intertemporal choice. The design and procedure were the same as in study 1. A total of 124 participants finished one of two versions of the intertemporal choice computerized questionnaire containing two scenarios. MANOVA analysis found that in both scenarios, people in the unpacking condition perceived a longer time delay(first scenario: F1(1, 98) = 9.03, p1〈 0.01; second scenario:F2(1, 98) = 6.54, p2 〈0.05). They also preferred the SS option in intertemporal decision making, F1(1, 98) =13.82, p1〈 0.001 and F2(1, 98) = 4.47, p2 〈0.05 in the first and second scenarios, respectively. These results supported hypothesis 2a. Meanwhile, bootstrap mediating analysis supported hypothesis 2b indicating that time perception of delay mediated the influence of unpacking manipulation on intertemporal choice at 90%confidence interval in the first scenario(-0.4660,-0.0220) and 95% confidence interval in the second scenario(-0.4621,-0.0151).This research identified a new influencing factor in judgment and decision making called the time unpacking effect, and implemented two studies to demonstrate its robustness. Using either an indirect(study 1)or direct(study 2) way to measure time perception substantiated this effect. Our time unpacking effect could be explained by support theory, specifically the attentional explanation. Compared with other influencing factors of time perception, the time unpacking effect is easier to manipulate, therefore it has more practical value in our daily lives.

Keyword分解效应 时间知觉 时间判断 跨期决策
Subject Area工业与组织心理学
Indexed ByCSCD
Funding Organization国家自然科学基金委(71001098) ; 中科院重点项目(KJZD-EW-L04)支持
Citation statistics
Cited Times:2[CSCD]   [CSCD Record]
Document Type期刊论文
Corresponding Author孙彦
First Author AffilicationInstitute of Psychology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Corresponding Author AffilicationInstitute of Psychology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
刘扬,孙彦. 时间分解效应及其对跨期决策的影响[J]. 心理学报,2016,48(4):362-370.
APA 刘扬,&孙彦.(2016).时间分解效应及其对跨期决策的影响.心理学报,48(4),362-370.
MLA 刘扬,et al."时间分解效应及其对跨期决策的影响".心理学报 48.4(2016):362-370.
Files in This Item:
File Name/Size DocType Version Access License
时间分解效应及其对跨期决策的影响_刘扬.(413KB)期刊论文出版稿限制开放CC BY-NC-SAView Application Full Text
Related Services
Recommend this item
Usage statistics
Export to Endnote
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[刘扬]'s Articles
[孙彦]'s Articles
Baidu academic
Similar articles in Baidu academic
[刘扬]'s Articles
[孙彦]'s Articles
Bing Scholar
Similar articles in Bing Scholar
[刘扬]'s Articles
[孙彦]'s Articles
Terms of Use
No data!
Social Bookmark/Share
File name: 时间分解效应及其对跨期决策的影响_刘扬.pdf
Format: Adobe PDF
All comments (0)
No comment.

Items in the repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.