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跨期决策是否基于“折扣计算”:来自双分离范式的证据
Alternative TitleIs intertemporal decision-making based on a temporal discounting process? Evidence from double-dissociation paradigm
张阳阳1; 周蕾2,3,4; 游旭群1; 李纾2,3; 梁竹苑2,3
First Author张阳阳
2018
Source Publication中国科学: 生命科学
Correspondent Emaillishu@psych.ac.cn ; liangzy@psych.ac.cn
ISSN1674-7232
Subtype期刊论文
Volume48Issue:5Pages:592 - 608
Contribution Rank2
Abstract

跨期决策指对发生在不同时间点上的结果之间进行的权衡.跨期决策主要理论可依据跨期决策是否基于折扣计算分为两类:折扣模型和非折扣模型,但目前学界却缺乏研究直接检验跨期决策的折扣计算假设是否成立.因此,本研究通过设计新的实验范式检验了跨期决策的"折扣计算"假设.该范式对比了符合折扣计算假设的基线折扣任务和被试自主进行跨期决策的自主跨期任务的任务表现和分层贝叶斯模型拟合结果,并基于双分离逻辑,分别选择了仅影响基线折扣任务或者自主跨期任务的操作变量(计算难度或选项的结果大小)与调节变量(计算能力或认知反思风格).研究结果发现,基线折扣任务的任务表现符合折扣计算假设的预测:其反应时随计算难度上升而增加,且其正确率受到计算难度和计算能力的影响;自主跨期决策任务的任务表现与基线折扣任务不同:其反应时短于基线折扣任务,且当选项结果越大,其选择SS选项的比例越少;调节变量和模型拟合出现了双分离效应,计算能力只影响基线折扣任务中的选择,认知反思风格只影响自主跨期任务偏好选择;计算难度只影响基线折扣任务的模型拟合度,而选项结果大小只影响自主跨期任务的模型拟合度.本研究结果不仅证明了新实验范式在检验折扣计算假设中的有效性,且从任务表现、调节变量和模型拟合层面看,自主跨期任务可能并不符合折扣计算假设的预测.本研究为更好地检验跨期决策的过程提供了新的方法学上的有益探索.

Other Abstract

Intertemporal decision-making (IDM) refers to tradeoffs among options occurring at different time points. The mainstream theories of IDM can be divided into two categories according to the theories’ basic hypothesis on cognitive processes, namely, whether IDM is grounded on a discounting computation process or not. The two categories are discounting and non-discounting models. However,due to the lack of reliable and effective experimental paradigms, only a few studies have directly examined whether this hypothesis is true or not. To determine if IDM is based on the discounting computation process, this study designed a new double-dissociation

experimental paradigm that includes a pair of tasks, namely, a baseline discounting task, in which participants make choices by following the discounting computation process, and the free-choice intertemporal task, in which participants make choices on their own. By adopting a double-dissociation logic, this study selected a pair of manipulating variables (computational difficulty and magnitude of outcomes) and moderator variables (arithmetic ability and cognitive reflection ability) that affect only the baseline discounting task or free-choice intertemporal task. Subsequently, task performances and the hierarchical Bayesian modeling results of

the pair of tasks were compared at the level of main tasks and manipulating and moderator variables. Results showed that the performance of the baseline discounting task was in line with the hypothesis of discounting computation. As computational difficulty increased, participants required increased reaction time to complete the baseline discounting task, and their task accuracy was affected by computational difficulty and arithmetic ability. The performance for the free-choice intertemporal task differed from that for the baseline discounting task. Compared with the scenario for the baseline discounting task, participants required less time to complete the free-choice intertemporal task, and they selected less sooner and smaller (SS) options when the outcome magnitude was large. Moreover, the results of moderator variables and model fitting exhibited double dissociation effects. Arithmetic ability only influenced the participants’ choice in the baseline discounting task, and cognitive reflection ability only influenced the participants’

preference in the free-choice intertemporal task. Meanwhile, computational difficulty affected only the model fitting for the baseline discounting task, and magnitude of outcomes affected only the model fitting in the free-choice intertemporal task. The results indicated that the new experimental paradigm was effective in testing the discounting computation process hypothesis of intertemporal choice. Furthermore, the free-choice intertemporal task might be not in line with the prediction of the discounting computation hypothesis on task performances, moderator variables, and model fitting. This study highlights a new methodological exploration for research on the intertemporal choice process.

Keyword跨期决策 折扣计算 基线折扣任务 双分离 分层贝叶斯模型
Indexed ByCSCD
Language中文
CSCD IDCSCD:6277290
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.psych.ac.cn/handle/311026/27079
Collection中国科学院行为科学重点实验室
Affiliation1.陕西师范大学心理学院
2.中国科学院心理研究所中国科学院行为科学重点实验室
3.中国科学院大学心理学系
4.暨南大学管理学院
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
张阳阳,周蕾,游旭群,等. 跨期决策是否基于“折扣计算”:来自双分离范式的证据[J]. 中国科学: 生命科学,2018,48(5):592 - 608.
APA 张阳阳,周蕾,游旭群,李纾,&梁竹苑.(2018).跨期决策是否基于“折扣计算”:来自双分离范式的证据.中国科学: 生命科学,48(5),592 - 608.
MLA 张阳阳,et al."跨期决策是否基于“折扣计算”:来自双分离范式的证据".中国科学: 生命科学 48.5(2018):592 - 608.
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