中国科学院心理研究所机构知识库

心理学对演绎推理机制的研究仍有争议，存在心理模型理论和心理逻辑理论之争，因此，从不同角度探查演绎推理的过程显得十分必要。本研究以小学儿童为研究对象从时间序列关系推理的角度来阐释推理是基于心理模型的还是基于心理逻辑的，从而为时间序列关系推理机制的研究提供更多的实验证据。

本研究采用实验法系统探查了8-12岁儿童对时间序列关系的推理能力，以推理的正确率和策略为研究指标，探查了在计算机和纸笔条件下儿童推理能力发展的一般过程及其特点，并试图揭示含有不同关系词的前提、推理前提数量以及问题类型（有确定答案的传递问题、有确定答案的非传递问题、无确定答案的非传递问题）对儿童推理能力发展的影响。

主要研究结果如下：

（1）总体而言，儿童时间序列关系推理能力随年龄而发展。 计算机条件下，儿童对有确定答案的传递问题的推理能力的发展趋势因实验任务而异：8岁组与10岁组儿童对含有不同关系词前提的推理能力差异显著；8岁组与12岁组儿童在不同推理前提数量下的推理能力差异显著。8岁组与10岁组儿童对无确定答案的非传递问题的推理能力差异显著。 纸笔条件下，8岁组与10岁组儿童对有确定答案的传递问题、有确定答案的非传递问题的推理能力差异显著，对无确定答案的非传递问题的推理能力在12岁时仍处于较低水平。

（2）推理的前提数量对儿童时间序列关系推理能力发展的影响因问题类型而异。有确定答案的传递问题下，前提数量不是影响推理成绩的主要因素；有确定答案的非传递问题下，儿童对4前提的推理成绩显著高于对5前提的推理成绩。

（3）含有不同关系词的前提对儿童时间序列关系推理能力的发展有影响。儿童对含有“在……之后”前提的推理成绩高于对兼含“在……之前”和“在……之后”前提的推理成绩，二者均高于对含有“在……之前”前提的推理成绩。

（4）推理的问题类型对儿童时间序列关系推理能力的发展有影响。儿童对有确定答案的传递问题的推理成绩高于对有确定答案的非传递问题的推理成绩，对有确定答案的非传递问题的推理成绩高于对无确定答案的非传递问题的推理成绩。

（5）儿童采用自身经验策略、位置序列策略、逻辑排序策略和模型建构策略等4类策略来进行时间序列关系推理。逻辑排序策略和模型建构策略是儿童在3类问题上均使用的策略。

（6）计算机和纸笔条件下儿童的推理能力以及推理策略类型的使用无显著差异，两种测验条件下儿童推理能力的发展表现出大体相同的趋势。

（7）儿童对不同类型问题推理成绩的差异符合心理模型理论关于推理难度的预期。但是，推理的心理模型理论不能完全解释儿童的推理过程。

The mechanism of reasoning is still under dispute in psychological research and there exists the controversy between Mental Model Theory and Mental Logic Theory. So it is necessary to discover the reasoning process from different aspects. One aim of the present research was to demonstrate whether the reasoning is based on mental models or mental rules from the view of the reasoning about temporal sequence, the subjects of which were pupils aging 8一12 from two elementary schools in Beijing.

Experimental methods were used to describe children's reasoning ability about temporal sequence in this research, dependent variables of which were reasoning accuracy and strategies as well. The developmental process of children's reasoning abifity and its characteristics were explored under two kinds of conditions: computer presentation and pencil-paper presentation. The influence of premises embedded by different kinds of temporal connectives on children's reasoning ability was investigated. So was the influence of the number of premises and the type of reasoning problems consisting of transitive problem determinate, non-transitive problem determinate and non-transitive problem indeterminate.

The main results of present research are as follows.

(1)In general, children's ability to reason about temporal sequence increased with age.

In computer presentation condition, developmental trends of children's reasoning ability about transitive problem determinate varied with the experimental tasks. During the course of reasoning about premises embedded by different temporal connectives, children aging 8一10 showed a great difference in reasoning ability. While reasoning about the different number of premises, children showed a developmental trend from age 8 to age 12. Furthermore, there existed a significant difference in accuracy on non-transitive problem indeterminate between the group aging 8 and the group aging 10.

In pencil-paper presentation, children's ability to reason about transitive problem determinate and non-transitive problem determinate improved rapidly during 8-10 years old. But even those children of 12 years old still got a low score on the non-transitive problem indeterminate.

(2) The impact of the number of premises on children's reasoning about temporal sequence varied with the types of problems. As for transitive problem determinate, the number of premises seemed not very influential. But as for non-transitive problem determinate, children got a higher score on the 4-premise task than the 5-premise task.

(3)Premises embedded by different temporal connectives exerted great influence on children's reasoning ability. Children scored higher on premises embedded by temporal connectives "after" purely than "before" and "after" simultaneously. And they got the lowest score on premises embedded by temporal connectives "before" purely.

(4)The type of reasoning problems was one of the influential factors. According to the difficulty from the least to the most, 3 kinds of reasoning problems followed such an order. The first was transitive problem determinate, then was non-transitive problem determinate, and non-transitive problem indeterminate came last.

(5)Multiple strategies were used during the process of children's reasoning about temporal sequence, namely, self experience strategy, positional sequence strategy, logical sequence strategy and model construction strategy. Logical sequence strategy and model construction strategy were used identically across 3 kinds of

problems.

(6)There was no significant difference in children's reasoning ability between the computer presentation and pencil-paper presentation. So was the type of strategies used. And, in these two kinds of presentations, children showed similar developmental trend.

(7)The prediction of Mental Model Theory about 3 kinds of problem proved to be true according to children's reasoning performance. However, it couldn't wholly explain children's reasoning process.