| 其他摘要 | Communication of uncertainty refers to engaging the public in discussions about events or information that contain elements of uncertainty, representing a significant area of research within the realm of public communication. Communication of uncertainty furnishes the public with richer and more transparent information, serving as a vital tool for fostering trust and managing crises. However, previous studies suggest that most communicators believe such communication, due to its ambiguous information and potential for obfuscation, could inevitably harm public trust. Regrettably, a review of the literature indicates a scarcity of research in this area, with existing studies showing contradictory results, underscoring the need for more empirical evidence to better understand and assess the effects of communication of uncertainty. Thus, to explore how the presentation of uncertain information affects communication outcomes, the following studies were conducted.
Study One compared the effects of certain expressions (precise numbers) and uncertain expressions (numerical ranges and verbal terms) in communicating uncertain information across multiple scenarios. Sub-study 1.1 was conducted in the context of climate change and economic forecasts, while sub-study 1.2 focused on the topic of COVID-19 vaccines. The results of both studies were largely consistent, showing that verbal expressions significantly reduced audience trust and acceptance of information, whereas numerical ranges achieved the same level, or even higher levels, of public trust in the information and scientists as did precise numbers.
Study Two examined the impact of various characteristics of numerical range expressions on communication effectiveness. Sub-study 2.1 compared the effect of different mean sizes in the context of climate change, sub-study 2.2 examined the impact of different range sizes on the topic of flu vaccines, and sub-study 2.3 re-evaluated the impact of mean sizes after changing the range sizes on the same topic. The results indicated that, firstly, the size of the mean had no effect on communication outcomes, and secondly, using too narrow ranges could damage public trust. Integrating the findings of Studies One and Two, it was determined that employing numerical ranges of moderate size in expressing uncertain information not only garnered public trust and acceptance comparable to certain expressions but could also have more positive effects.
Study Three explored the impact of different framing on the effectiveness of communication of uncertainty. Sub-study 3.1 investigated uncertain communication under positive and negative framing, while sub-study 3.2 examined the differences in uncertain communication effectiveness when different sources of uncertainty were explained through framing. The findings showed that there were no significant differences in the effectiveness of communication between uncertain and certain information under positive and negative framing. However, when the reasons for uncertainty were attributed to methodological shortcomings, people trusted numerical range information more than certain information.
Study Four aimed to verify the "emotion-cognition" dual-pathway mechanism in the communication of uncertainty. The findings demonstrated that uncertain information primarily operates through the cognitive pathway, reducing public probability perception and, consequently, trust and information acceptance, while uncertain information had less impact on emotional fluctuations. Moreover, even after controlling for cognitive and emotional pathways, uncertain information still had a direct positive impact on trust, suggesting the potential of communication of uncertainty to enhance public trust.
In summary, this research found that communicating uncertainty using numerical ranges of moderate size could achieve the same levels of trust and information acceptance as precise forms. In certain contexts, it could garner even more public trust than precise forms, primarily through the cognitive rather than the emotional pathway. This study expands the scope of public communication research, focusing on the positive effects of communication of uncertainty. In the practice of risk management, this research contributes to managing information communication in uncertain scenarios, providing valuable empirical evidence for assessing and forecasting the communication of uncertain information. |
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